Study On The Formation Mechanism And Influencing Factors Of The Development Vulnerability For State-owned Forest Farm In China

The state-owned forest farm, which is one of the important part of forestry career, not only bear the mission of the construction of ecological civilization, but also provide a powerful guarantee of the material resources for China's economic and social development. So, keep the sustainable development of national forest farm has very important significance, no matter to ensure land ecological security, national economic development, or to the harmonious development of the society. However, about80%of national forest farm of our country present a dangerous and difficult character, by the influence of forestry feeble constitution, structure features and external environment change and so on. Through on-the-spot investigation, the different national forest farm which has a dangerous and difficult character, some can be back on the health and stable development way through the adjustment, and others in danger. The key reason for that is the instability of the internal structure of national forest farm and the sensitivity of the external environment change. And more important is the lack of response ability to face influence factors. That is the vulnerability of development of state-owned forest farm.Based on this, the goal of this study around is regulate vulnerability of national forest farm development and promote the sustainable development of national forest farm. According to the system theory and the theory of entropy increase, comprehensive use the research results of system engineering, econometrics and complexity science. Relying on the subject of "The definition standard research of state-owned poverty forest farm" and "The research of reform and development of state-owned forest farm", the main research include:defining the vulnerability of state-owned forest farm, analyzing the formation mechanism of vulnerability of state-owned forest farm development, explore the influence factors of vulnerability of state-owned forest farm development and hierarchical structure of the influence factors, empirical research the mechanism of the influence of factors of different levels on vulnerability of state-owned forest farm development, explore the control mechanism of vulnerability of state-owned forest farm development. This paper study in our country state-owned forest farm, with the perspective of "How can realize the sustainable development" not "How to realize the sustainable development", this have certain theoretical significance. Through the exploration of formation mechanism of direct and deep factors on the influence of vulnerability of state-owned forest farm development, reveals the inherent law of the danger and the key factors. And then through the regulation of vulnerability of national forest farm to promote the sustainable development of state-owned forest farm, this has important policy meaning and realistic significance.Mainly studies and conclusions of this paper are as follows.First, from the point of view of system theory, analyze the structure of system of China's national forest farm development and the relationship between subsystems, and have the conclusion that national forest farm system has the openness, self-organizing, nonlinear and network connection, and then based on theoretical results of vulnerability of complex systems, national forest farm development system has the characteristics of vulnerability. Second, vulnerability of national forest farm development is meaning that in the process of development, with influence of its internal and external risk factors and the influence each other, something which hinder the sustainable development of national forest farm and interfere with the nonnal function. Based on the systematic theory of entropy, demonstrates the development process of national forest is a process of entropy increase, and further conclusion is that development of national forest farm system is not stable. Third, by constructing the pressure-response relation framework of development of national forest farm, analyze pressure factors and response ability of national forest farm development system, and points out that the formation and evolution of vulnerability of development of national forest farm is the result of not match of pressure factors and response factors in the process of the development of national forest farm. Fourth, by constructing the two-dimensional framework of development vulnerability of national forest farm, and applying the ISM technology, empirical analysis to influence factors and the structure of our country state-owned forestry farm development vulnerability is conducted. The results show that, the relevant and support industry, human resources, capital resources, forest resources and infrastructure is the most direct the most basic influencing factors of vulnerability of national forest farm development; science and technology innovation, management mechanism, social security, the early warning system and location is the driving factor of directly influence factors, through the direct factors larger or smaller national forest farm vulnerability; The management system of state-owned forest farm, national macro policies and external natural environment is the deep factors of development vulnerability of national forest farm. Fifth, with the principal component analysis, in the direct influence factors of development vulnerability of national forest farm, the forest resources factor and investment factor have significant influence on development vulnerability of national forest farm, further through the cointegration analysis and impulse response analysis, the results show that there is a long-term equilibrium between the investment and the state-owned forest farm development and the fluctuation of investment has influence on development vulnerability of national forest farm. Sixth, by introducing virtual variables and the control variables, to construct the regression model of system of property rights has influence on state-owned forest farm vulnerability, the empirical results show that in the process of national forest farm management, there is multilayer agency, and the main body of property right is not clear, usufruct and disposition is incomplete, these serious influence the development of the vulnerability of the national forest farm. Seventh, through the establishment of the error correction model, constructing the measurement model of state-owned forest farm related policy has influence on vulnerability of national forest farm, the empirical results show that the related policy of national forest farm has certain regulation function on vulnerability, but control effect is not obvious. Eighth, based on the analysis of formation mechanism and the affecting factors of the vulnerability of the national forest farm, from the angle of reduce pressure impact and enhance the system response ability to construct the control mechanism of development vulnerability of national forest farm.