Major Structural Problems Of The Chinese Household Savings Study

The Global Financial Crisis broke out in2008and exposed a number ofproblems in the core level behind the crisis. Since then it has been a matter ofimportance to rethink the crisis and search for the real source of the crisis. In termsof saving, the low saving rate born simultaneously with higher burden of public andprivate debt might be the key. In the meantime, China is under the focus of nationaland foreign economists for its higher saving rate capable of supporting large-scaleinvestment budget. It is of great importance for the solution of the apparent puzzle toprovide answer to the economic growth and its trends in the future.This dissertation is built on the bulk theories of life cycle saving (orconsumption), and it extends the discussion of Chinese household saving (orconsumption) to broader structural factors including demographic structure, growthof income, inflation rate, interest rate, and prices of tangible assets.This dissertation consists of nine chapters. The first chapter serves as a prefacewhich introduces the background of the research, the utility of the research, and themajor content and methods. The second chapter is a survey of national and foreigntheses following the line of development of the Life Cycle Hypothesis (LCH) ofsaving, and draws to the conclusion that the structural problems may becomeimportance direction of future research. In the third chapter, under the guidance ofLCH, Chinese survey data of urban and rural households together with the data inthe Fund Flow Statement. The fourth chapter, by revisiting the classical LCH,constructs a LCH model of with relaxed constraints, thus provides reserves for thefactor-wise research of determinants of aggregated saving rate. In the fifth chapter,demographic structure as one of the determinants of aggregated saving rate isdiscussed, and the relationship between demographic structure and aggregatedsaving rate in major years has confirmed the justification of the positive conclusiondrawn by LCH. The sixth chapter discusses the impact of economic growth onChinese household saving by integrating the expected growth rate of income as atool in the model with the expectation of enhancing the explaining ability of theoriginal model. The seventh chapter discusses the impact of household wealthaccumulation on Chinese household saving on the basis of the generalized modelintroduced in the fourth chapter; with the two indictors, growth rate of prices oftangible assets and interest rate, are observed in terms of their importance andmechanism of influence. The eighth chapter also builds on the general model fromthe fourth chapter to explore the mechanism of influence and functional channels forthe impact of inflation rate on Chinese household saving. The ninth chapter serves asa conclusion of the whole dissertation, summarizes the gain and the loss of the paper,and offers an outlook for future research.This dissertation employs the LCH as its basic theoretical tool, and enjoys aposition of infrequent study among the writings and theses of domestic researchers.This dissertation has done three pieces of innovative work in total. Firstly, based onthe LCH, it has contributed both theoretically and practically in adjusting theChinese household saving data. Secondly, this dissertation constructs a generalizedLCH which integrated interest rate, prices of tangible assets and inflation rate intothe classical LCH model, thus contributes to the development of the LCH. Thirdly,this dissertation introduces the expected growth rate of income to the classical modeland enhances the explaining ability of the original model.Besides the objective shortcoming of statistical materials, this dissertation alsohas more work to do in the future with the lack of household sample level research,not capable of integrating the bequest factor into the model, and research of part ofthe factors with space of improvement.