The Relationship Between The Second Demographic Dividend Based On Rational Expectations And The Rate Of Saving

The relationship between economic development and demographic transition,population is always the crucial issue to researchers. There are a lot of achievementsnot only about the role of population transition but also about the behaviorcharacteristics of different ages in promoting economic growth. Among the analysisof population and economic growth, most of the literature use the “dependency ratio”,“elderly dependency ratio”,“child dependency ratio” indicators to both qualitativeanalysis and quantitative estimates, in order to draw the demographic dividendconclusions.Studies on demographic dividend are almost all about the first demographicdividend. On the contrary, there are rare researches on the second demographic even itis given increasing attention along with the aged tendency of population swept overthe world. Turning to the second demographic dividend, most of the existingliteratures start from the point of view of rational expectations to discuss itsconnotation. But the economic behavior adjustments pointed out based on rationalexpectations are relatively limited and they have not been able to distinguish the firstdemographic dividend and the second demographic dividend. The study of themechanism of promotion of the second demographic dividend to the economic growthis pending further study.This thesis focuses on accomplishing two tasks: First, to clearly define theconnotation of the second demographic and make stretch based on pre-existingresearches; Second, to develop a model and unprecedented translate economicbehavior modifications based on rational expectations, what the second demographicdividend emphasized, into5parameters, then find out the relationship between therate of saving and the second demographic dividend to support further researches onhow demographic dividend promote economic growth.