Research On The Influence Effect Of Coal Price Fluctuation On China Entity Economy

As a fundamental energy of China, coal took up above 65% in China's primary energy production and consumption structure. As an upper industry of China, the coal industry's price fluctuation has some profound implications on related industries and real entities of China. Therefore, scientific exploration to the conduction effect of coal price fluctuation on China's entity economy has some positive meanings to the scientific development and the establishment of related policies of China.Firstly, we define the related research concepts, e.g., influence effect, entity economy, coal price, etc and further point out that the research of coal price fluctuation's conduction effects on China's entity economy should be done from aggregate ands structural effects. The aggregate effect should start from the angles of total merchandise price and total output and highlight the dynamic and static, the aggregate and structural comparison analysis. Further, the research thoughts and framework should be finalized. On the basis, we further explore the conduction mechanism of coal price fluctuation on entity economy's aggregate and structural variables.Based on the theoretical analysis, we use multiple econometric methods, e.g., Granger casualty test, VAR model, ECM model and Impulse Response Function, etc. to make some general test to the conduction effect of coal price to the aggregates of entity economy. The results indicate that coal price fluctuation has significant and positive effect on merchandise price and output, whereas the long-term effect magnitude on PPI is greater than the effect magnitude on CPI. However, the short-term effect magnitude on merchandise price is not obvious and the negative short-term effect magnitude on GDP is obvious. The time lag of conduction to merchandise price is compatible to the theoretical analysis. Meanwhile, from the perspective of structural variable measurement results of total output, coal price fluctuation has a long-term positive effect on investment and consumption, and has a negative and enlarging effect on import and export.We use parameter-varying state spatial model to measure its time-varying efficiency. The results indicate that, there is a downward trend in the dynamics of coal price's effect magnitude on CPI and the figure levels off after the year 2007. There is obvious efficiency attrition; whereas the time-varying elasticity of coal price to China PPI is on a high level, although dropped slightly in these two years. The time-varying effect magnitude of coal price fluctuation on China GDP is significant and positive. In general, it shows a downward-upward-downward trend of fluctuation. There is also some efficiency attrition. The effect on output's structural variables is positive, however, the time-varying effect magnitude on all variables is diverse. In general, the effect of coal price fluctuation on investment and import and export is enlarging and positive, whereas the effect on consumption shows the trend of efficiency stringency.Based on the above analysis, we further analyze the relevance of coal price fluctuation and entity economy aggregates'variable time-varying effects, indicating there is a corresponding relationship between coal price fluctuation state and the time-varying elasticity to GDP conduction, nevertheless, the corresponding relationship to merchandise price is not significant. The relationship of coal price fluctuation and PPI is in general better than that to CPI. There are time lags in coal price fluctuation's expansion phase and CPI, PPI and GDP fluctuation state, time-varying elasticity's expansion phase, but the time lag to CPI is smaller than that to PPI. We further deduce that the relationship of coal price's expansion phase and its time-varying elasticity's expansion phase to CPI is asymmetric whereas its relationship to PPI and GDP time-varying elasticity is symmetric.By using the input-output analysis, we measure the effect magnitude of coal price fluctuation on entity economy structural variables using the input-output table in 2007. On the basis of the construction of the input-output price model, we calculate and finalize the major sections that have a relatively large effect magnitude on coal price increase. The increase of coal price has a larger impact on the high-energy-consuming section in the secondary industry, whereas the influences on the primary and tertiary industries are relatively small. From the view of sensitivity analysis, the sensitivity of heavy chemical industry to the change of coal price is rather obvious, while the sensitivity of high-energy-consuming sector to the change of coal price is rather significant.Based on the above analysis, in combination with China's real economic running, we analyze and study the practices that are compatible with the theoretical analysis and empirical conclusions in real economic running, and explain the empirical conclusions that are incompatible with the economic running theories. Using the marketization mechanism of coal price, in combination with the marketization reform of related industries, the optimization of industrial structures and the specific solutions, i.e., the economic increase under the premise of merchandise price stability and the reduction of coal price fluctuation, the related political advices are given from macro and micro economic levels. We hope the solutions could have some references for the reform of coal marketization and the makeout of macro policies.