| There are opportunities and threats in the current air transport industry in China from the external market environment. First of all, the domestic and international business transactions have been increasing with the China's economic development. Although this increasingly commercial exchanges have brought a lot of passengers to the aviation industry, the foreign airlines are joining the competition through a variety of ways aiming to capture a slice of China's aviation market. Second, with China's industrial restructuring, tourism industry, as an emerging green industry, has been paid more attention to it by local governments gradually,thus bringing a number of tourists.However, a variety of ground transportation industry is also competing through speeding up the distribution network. Third, although the rapid development of China's aviation industry has provided strong support, the competition of airlines are still weak because of high operating costs caused by the overcapacity.Faced with this critical situation, what the domestic airlines can do is only to cut down the operation costs and to expand the customer in the transportation market, that is to implement the Lean Management.As the core of effective control of operating costs for airlines,the fleet assignment is the key to carry out the lean management.According to the airline passenger flowing volume, market share, passenger demand and aircraft technical features to carry out the scientific fleet assignment is an effective way to enhance the competition of airlines.Three closely related aspects in the process of the airline's operation have been conducted in this paper, that is market forecasting, fleet assignment and aircraft evaluation.First, from the three levels, that is the total quantity of route passenger flow, the market share airline occupied and the flight passenger, this paper put forward to the market demand forecast of Airline and gave the concrete forecast techniques correspondingly. In the process of research, the total passenger demand forecast of some routes has been carried on with the aid of the support vector machines technology. Based on the improved analytic hierarchy process,the appraisal of the different Airline's competitive ability and the corresponding market share have been carried on. After the route's market share was estimated, the market share that the airline occupied should be distributed to each flight reasonably according to the passenger demand distribution characteristic of each flightThe airlines try to get the great benefits through pay more attention to the phenomenon of the fine computation to each flight's demand, flight overflow and recapture. The research of this part lays the foundation for the following fleet assignment research. There is no scientific fleet assignment without accurate demand prediction.Based on existing route network and airline fleet resources, fleet assignment is to distribute different aircrafts to the appropriate flights according to aircraft availability, class capacity, operating costs and potential benefits to achieve revenue maximization and minization of the cost ultimately. There are many aspects should be considered, such as traffic forecasts, crew resource allocation and aircraft maintenance. In the process of mathematical model establishment and programming, many obstacles were encountered. Using the simulation software, the author considered the maintenance factors of the integrated model and put forward to a new solution to the assignment of an integrated fleet assignment model.Based on the aviation market demand forecast, the mathematical optimized results is only an economic analysis. It is necessary to make a synthetic evaluation and consider a number of technical indicators and the flight specific situations.Using data envelopment analysis, This paper analyzed the adaptability of different flight and gave an allocation considering both the economic and the feasibility.Through the research, theoretically, a systematic aviation demand forecast method and a kind of vivid simulation picture demonstration fleet assignment process have been proposed. Through the data envelope analytic method, a further evaluation has been carried on, enables the final fleet assignment not only efficiency, but also feasibility. The study in this article has the reality significance in the scientific market demand forecast and the fleet assignment for the fine management of an airline. The simulation and evaluation provide the airline a kind of convenient tool to avoid economic risk and to ensure flight safety. |
