Demography, Income And Housing

Based on the references, the dissertation has studied theoretical and practical problems on the relationship of housing,demography and income. From the angle of macroeconomy, the dissertation has normatively and empirically analyzed the effects of macroeconomic factors on the demand and price of housing as well as the factors on the demand and supply of housing. The dissertation has repectively analyzed the effects of demography and income on the demand and supply of housing along with policy advice. The dissertation has four parts:First, the dissertation has normatively analyzed the factors of housing demand and supply along with the empirical analyses of main factors such as price,demography,income and profit. In the data from 1993-2008, the dissertation has found that the housing demand is influenced by price,income,demography that has some lags. The quantity and the price have rised together because of the rise of urban demography and income. The housing supply rises with demand and the supply has its own disciplines. The housing supply is related by the demand, but the supply is determined by the profits. The supply is raised largely only because the profits rise largely.Second, the dissertation has analyzed the effect of macroeconomy on housing price. The part theoretically analyzes the macroeconomic effects on housing assets market and housing using market with four-quadrant-two-market model. Subsequently, the relationship of macroeconomy and housing price is empirically analyzed with 1993-2008 panel data by stock-flow model. The result suggests that housing price is affected by the macroeconomic factors. In the factors, lag housing price effect is the biggest one so housing market is imperfect market. The second biggest is income, whose rise promotes the rise of housing price directly. The third is demography, whose effect has some time lags continuously because of most of the new people coming from the rural.The third comes with the effect of demography on housing demand. It theoretically analyzes the relationship of demography and housing demand as well as the conduction of the effect from the Mankiw-Weil model. It gets different conclusions from references' in the empirical study on the age structure and family quantity with housing demand. The part finally analyzes demography and housing supply theoretically and empirically, which suggests that demography affects the housing supply significantly. The effect proves the continuation from the impulse response function along with the ratio of effect of demography on the supply by the variance decomposition.The relationship of housing price and income is analyzed in the fourth part. The part begins with new house price-income ratio and then comes to dynamic analysis on it with EC model, which proves the significant correlation between the ratio and income. It is followed by the relationship of permanent income and housing demand and supply with panel data. The empirical study finds that housing demand is not only correlated by the income of current period time but also the periods before and the periods coming. The conclusion is consistent with the references'. The rise of income pushes the housing demand up and then the price up followed by the rising housing supply. It also finds the apparent inertia of supply.Consequently, the dissertation proposes the following policy:more supply should be provided and the quantity should be consistent with the (potential) housing demand or even more. The design should be also consistent with the (potential) housing demand, which wouldn't get the structural imbalance of demand and supply. Speculation should be strictly limited. Housing supply in other ways should be raised largely.