Research On The Problems Of Overcapacity Of Chinese Automobile Industry

The automobile industry has been becoming stanchion industry, but overcapacity is appearing increasingly in automobile vocation. How to superlatively use limited resource for strengthening the Chinese automobile industry into great power countries is the most important matter that the Chinese enterprisers should solve.The research is divided to three parts:The first part includes theories of overplus and composing overplus models. The article mainly studied overplus mechanism and overplus conception and overplus character, etc. The article analyse from absolute overplus and relative overplus, carefully research the structure overplus, and bring forward the conceptions about reasonable overplus and limit of overplus. Based on analyzing historic datas and experienced datas , the paper calculate the reasonable scope of overplus.The second part is the basic modeling support , it is divided into three blocks: Number one are theoretics. Mostly consisting the theories about overplus and economical cycle, theories about supply and theories about market.Number two is the research about Chinese automobile market supply. Author study the capacity conception, count the capacity of enterprises, build the index system about capacity , and evaluate the capacity which all Chinese mainly automobile enterprises can produce. The article also construct two models of equal ratio and variable ratio to analyse supply, give the foundation for the plan of investment.Number three is the research about Chinese automobile market. Managing matrix of time sequence and uptrend extend and grey combination, forecast the trend about the future 10 years of Chinese automobile market. During forecast , researcher sufficiently consider the Chinese automible quantity of past years and the price index change and the current of Engel's coefficient. The market forecasting exist conflict: the car dream increase the demand, but condition limit descend the"buying", so the requirement curve turn direction, one possibility is slow down the increase speed, another possibility is the curve turn down. So use golden mean to modify the forecast datas, find out the market inflexion. In theory set up logic curve model, according to the predicated value of market saturation, work out the theory inflexion point. The third part establish the model of investment programming and suggest the measures of balancing the overcapacity.In the aspect of programming model, starting from the general market demand, found the ideal general supply model by dint of overplus limit, then modified by inertia investment factor and depreciation factor about fixed assets and economical cycle, we obtain the real general supply model, at the end fetch the exective investment programming model.For the measures of balancing the overcapacity, the measures can be taken from three lays. For the country, it is necessary to come into existence of automobile OAME organize,develop great supply works,arouse mini-vehicle,establish scientific system about discard as useless,enlarge inner need,control the import of official vehicles, etc. For the enterprises, they should lead the consumption,satisfy the individuation,extend the countryside market,innovate by independence, etc. Iin order to occupy the abroad market, it is also necessary to widen export.