Study On Influences And Coordination Development Of Fictitious Economy And Real Economy

In the new situation of international economic development, there is great significance for maintaining sustained and rapid development of the national economy based on promoting the coordinated development of the fictitious economy and real economy, and the real economy grow with the healthy development of fictitious economy. Study on promoting coordinated development of China's fictitious economy and real economy has been done in the dissertation based on this idea. Therefore, the relationship between the development of China's financial market, the fictitious part of the real estate market and the real economy has been analyzed based on defining the category of fictitious economy.Real economy is the basis of fictitious economy development, and there are counterproductive influences of fictitious economy to real economy. Theoretical analysis of the coordinated development mechanism of fictitious economy and real economy has shown that fictitious economy can be a'booster'for real economy's development based on the coordinated development of fictitious economy and real economy; fictitious economy excessive departure from real economy can lead to the accumulation of economic bubble and may induce bubble economy, the bursting of the bubble can lead to financial crisis or economic crisis; and there is the coordination and its recovery mechanism between fictitious economy and real economy.Empirical analysis of the coordination state of China's fictitious economy and real economy has been done based on the theoretical analysis of the mechanism of fictitious economy and real economy. Research of the influences of China's fictitious economy on real economy showed that there was stronger influence degree of the development of the stock market, bond market and fund market consisted to the capital market and the financial derivatives market on China's real economy in the long term; the effects of the development of stock market to the social wealth increased gradually; there were significant influences of the scale expansion of stocks and loan to the investment expansion effect of real economy in the short and long term.The static and dynamic coordination degree of China's fictitious economy and real economy has been calculated based on the comprehensive-changes method and coordination degree model, and the conclusions were that there had been weak imbalance state of the fictitious economy and real economy in recent years particularly since 2007; the imbalance degree was bigger in 2008; and the maladjustment state became weaken in 2009 and the dynamic coordination development trend of the overall system began to move to the next coordination state. The possible reason for the weak imbalance state since 2007 was that the scale of China's fictitious economy expanded rapidly and departed from the real economy. Then, the coordination state of China's fictitious economy and real economy from 2010 to 2014 has been forecasted based on the association prediction model, and the results showed that there was coordination state between the two systems in the forecast period.On the basis of analysis the mechanism of the excessive expansion of the fictitious lead to the bubble economy, the absolute and relative bubble degrees in China's market have been calculated with the dynamic Gordon model, and analyzed the bubble risk situation of the real estate market based the ratio of real estate sales price to income and the ratio of China's real estate sales-rental price index etc.. The results showed that China's stock market was in downturn from 2008 influenced by the international financial crisis, the stock market was rebound gradually in 2009, and there was weak absolute and relative degree of stock bubble in the first half of 2010. There has been high bubble degree of China's real estate market since the second half of 2009, and the development trend of China's real economy and the real estate market was imbalance. Then, the framework of early warning of China's factious economy excessive departure from the real economy was proposed.Suggestions of promoting moderate and efficient growth of China's fictitious economy; strengthening the supervision of the financial market, risk prevention of the real estate market, and the coordination supervision of the fictitious economy system and the real economy system; and constructing and implementing the risk warning system of the fictitious economy excessive departure from the real economy based on the actual development of Chinese economy and conclusions of the empirical analysis.There are 77 figures, 72 tables and 140 references.