Study On China's Pork Supply And Demand Based On Market Model

China is main pig production country; meanwhile, it also consumes huge quantity pork. Pigs are very important for Chinese livestock sector and livelihoods of both urban and rural people. Nowadays, there are many adverse factors which have shock to pigs market. The supply and demand of pork is in corresponding shock with those factors. This study on pig sector is in the sequence of subsystem, total system of pigs'production and consumption to find out the driving factors and restricting factors of pigs industry. Finally, it will make one market model to simulate those driving factors and restricting factors to provide quantitative analysis.Pig production has tendency for shifting to main feed grains production areas. Pig price is the character for season, and it is mainly in August, September, October and November for good marketing price. Intensive pig production is the tendency for future. Large-scale farms recently increased dramatically. Compared to large-scale farms, small householders for pig producing are in low efficient. Pork is main meat consumption for urban and rural residents, especially rural residents with very high proportion of pork consumption to meat consumption. It is also obvious that the proportion of pork consumption to meat consumption has been declining year after year. Pork price is always the key factor for influencing the pork consumption. Since 2007, pork price is always at high level and large fluctuation, and the spread of price between farm price and retailed price also went up, but price spread only accounted for small percentage to retail price. It is the similar as pigs price, the pork price is generally highs in August, September, October and December. Residents pay more and more attention to quality of pork, so demand of good quality pork increase with the improvement of income.Pig's production of China is the top one in world, followed by US and Germany. In China, the quantity of pork export and import of pork is little to compare to domestic production. Hong Kong and Macao is our staple pork market. China mainly imports the fresh and frozen pork from US, France and Denmark which are main pig production countries. China also imports offal and head of pigs, Denmark is our biggest trade partner for offal and head of pigs. In future, it is potential for import offal and head of pigs. China didn't import the live pigs for slaughtering, only import sows from US,Denmark, Britain, France and other countries.Pork market model system contains 22 equations which are mutual connection. Pork market model is solved by using the Gauss-Seidel method for iteration. The baseline for pork market model showed that pig production will continue to develop and the consumption of pork will be strong growth in next 10 years. As international trade, the import will increase dramatically; nevertheless, the export of pork will decline by small margin.The great use of market model is to simulate different scenarios in market model, so it is necessary to set four scenarios in pork market. (1) First scenario is about adjusting income distribution and improves the income policy. It stimulates the pork consumption and pork production, which don't push up the price of pork largely. In this way, it can improve the standard of living of the urban and rural residents and keep the pig sector sustainable development. (2) Second scenario is about RMB appreciation, the price of feed decrease, and pork price also decline which lead to increase of the pork consumption. Import of pork is improved greatly, which also cause the decline of pork price. (3) Third scenario is about the epidemics risk of pigs. Farmers will slaughter pigs in advance; even though the pig price is very low. Farmers are very worried about disease, so it is best way to reduce inventory of sows. (4) Fourth scenario is about raising the rate of large-scale farms. It will strengthen the supply ability of pigs and reduce price of pigs and price of pork. Lower prices can stimulate the urban and rural residents to consume more pork.