Theoretical Analysis On The Impact Of China's Modern Logistics Industry On Regional Economy

Theoretical Analysis on the Impact of China's Moden Logistics Industry on Regional EconomyInto the twenty-first century, with the increasingly fierce competition in the world economy, the modern logistics industry as a source of corporate profits was the fact that it is recognized in all aspects, the modern logistics industry is recognized as the basis for the national economy and arteries, while the regional economic development of the "lubricant" and "promoting agent." Modern logistics industry can regulate and balance supply and demand, promote the transformation of industrial structure, enhance industrial competitiveness, protection of the safe operation of the national macro-economic strategic role. As the basis of production services, the healthy development of the modern logistics industry has become the foundation to ensure the development of national economies, the economic and social development in the irreplaceable to play an increasingly important role. Although China's logistics industry has entered the early stages of development from the development stage, and has achieved fast development, but compared to Western countries, China's logistics industry, there are still insufficient investment in infrastructure, the overall small-scale macroeconomic pillar the role of lack of great differences in the logistics industry and many other issues. So, how to analyze the modern logistics industry in the mechanism of economic growth? How to evaluate modern logistics role in relation to economic growth? How to use some modern empirical analysis of the economics of modern logistics industry and the relationship between economic growth, to quantitative analysis? This thesis on these issues from the perspective of in-depth theoretical and empirical research to practical guidance for the Government to provide logistics for the government to develop modern logistics for the healthy development of each region's policy logistics planning and logistics industry to provide relevant theoretical basis.So, how to analyze the modern logistics industry in the mechanism of economic growth? How to assess the modern logistics industry's contribution to economic growth? How the modern logistics industry in the accurate positioning of the national economy? How quantitative analysis of the modern logistics industry and the relationship between economic growth and thus make China's modern logistics industry for the countermeasures? topic of this thesis aims of these issues from the perspective of theoretical and empirical research specifically aimed at the development of measures for the modern logistics industry to provide the scientific basis for the formulation. Therefore, this study not only of great theoretical significance, but also has important practical value. Aims of this research both theoretical and empirical perspective of the economic growth of China's modern logistics industry, the impact of in-depth, detailed and comprehensive analysis.In this paper, system dynamics tools for the economic system of the modern logistics system dynamics analysis. On this basis, you can understand the modern logistics and economic development trends and the mutually reinforcing relationship between them, for the following chapters to lay a theoretical basis for empirical analysis.Economic efficiency also reflects the growth in the modern logistics industry to improve the quality parts, which include both technical efficiency of the entire input and output caused by increased growth, but also includes the contribution of technological progress, it is this economic efficiency, growth in the modern logistics industry can be model performance as well as its growth effectively portray it. If the quantitative analysis method can be used to increase the performance of China's logistics industry differences identified scientifically, and then found that the development pattern of China's modern logistics industry, which is a scientific understanding of China's modern logistics industry, the growth pattern of growth performance and to develop appropriate strategic adjustment of economic structure particularly necessary. In this paper, data envelopment analysis (DEA) Construction and Evaluation of the Effectiveness of China's modern logistics industry, the static and dynamic models. Combined input and output of China modern logistics industry in all areas of data analysis and comparison of growth in the modern logistics industry in the static and dynamic efficiency. The results showed that the central and western regions of the modern logistics industry on the growth performance of the macro still does not exist significant differences. And western China, central and eastern areas were macro-static growth performance of the modern logistics industry there are significant differences. 2002-2008, China's modern logistics industry growth performance of macro-dynamic average in some areas showed an upward trend, with Shanghai at an average annual rate of increase of 30.9% came in the first place. However, in this period, there are many areas of dynamic growth performance of macro-logistics industry there was a certain extent.As in a different environment, the economy has shown growth characteristics are different, so the modern logistics industry growth and economic growth in different conditions, the role of relationship may be different, that is, regression model parameters in different sub-sample interval (or stage ) changes will occur within, so simple linear regression model there may be instability of the model. In order to analyze the logistics industry in economic fluctuations and economic growth of the non-symmetric relations, this choice Markov regime switching model (Markov-switching model) to analyze the modern logistics industry growth and regional economic growth in the conduction mechanism. Empirical study found that China's modern logistics industry and economic growth path, there is significant economic "crunch zone system" and the "expansion area" system, through the Markov regime switching model can approximately determine the logistics industry and economic growth in the economy " tightening district system "and" expansion area "system may change between the time. The results show that from 2000 to 2009, the logistics industry expansion and economic growth a long time, crunch time is shorter. Process of economic operation in China, the modern logistics industry growth and the relationship between economic growth in the area rely on their system status. When the modern logistics industry and economic growth in a different state of the economy, the relationships between the two variables have the same direction, which means that economic growth in the case of a severe recession, growth in the modern logistics industry and economic trends or the expectations component showed a positive correlation between growth, that is, if low levels of economic growth, shrinking the modern logistics industry will be there, on the contrary, the promotion of the logistics industry.Driven by economic globalization, foreign direct investment (foreign direct investment, FDI) has become the main form of international capital flows and foreign direct investment as a synthesis of multinational management resources into technology from developed to developing countries important carrier of the transfer and diffusion. China's economic development has a significant export-oriented features, FDI on the economic aspects have had a far-reaching impact, the modern logistics industry is no exception, especially since China's accession to WTO, gradually opening up the modern logistics industry, foreign direct investment (especially multinational corporations ) as the link is the link of economic globalization has played a pivotal role. However, from the perspective of existing literature on China's modern logistics industry started relatively late, study less, and specifically to the growth of FDI and modern logistics industry, research and even less can be said that theoretical research in this area far behind the needs of practice . In this paper, relevant data, the establishment of FDI and growth in the modern logistics industry PVAR model of FDI on the basis of interaction with modern logistics industry relations. It can be seen from the causality analysis, the modern logistics industry and foreign direct investment between the mutually reinforcing relationship exists, when foreign direct investment, rapid development, will generate huge demand for the modern logistics industry, prompting transportation and logistics-related , warehousing and distribution and telecommunications industries and others have rapid development. In turn, the logistics industry also contributed to foreign direct investment. The more developed the economic development of the modern logistics industry in high demand are also more likely for the modern logistics industry to provide more solid economic foundation and material and technical conditions, the more foreign direct investment can provide the necessary transportation, communications, storage and other hardware conditions and personnel management culture software such conditions.With the increasing maturity of the market economy and booming modern logistics industry, modern logistics industry in the national economy and regional economic foundation, the role of radiation gradually apparent. How to effectively promote the development of modern logistics industry in order to optimize the tertiary industry and the overall industrial structure, is of great theoretical and practical significance. We also use the 30 provinces of China in 1992-2008 on the basis of panel data, the establishment of panel cointegration model to analyze the development of logistics industry in all regions of the industrial structure on the extent and patterns. Our study found that 30 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions of the modern logistics industry and the industrial structure between the long-term, stable cointegration relationship. Can be seen from the estimated results, the modern logistics industry is indeed on the industrial structure shows a positive interaction. Including the development of modern logistics industry the greatest impact on the industrial structure of the five regions are Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shandong and Hubei. Looking at the results from the estimates can be found in the western region development of the modern logistics industry in less impact on the industrial structure. Development of modern logistics industry the impact of industrial structure shown clear regional differences in characteristics. From 30 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions on the development of logistics industry in the short-term impact of industrial structure point of view, the five most affected area is of Jiangsu, Shanghai, Zhejiang, Shandong, Guangdong, and this positively to short-term impact. The Western Region Development of the modern logistics industry in the short-term impact of industrial structure is very small, even in Shaanxi, Qinghai, two regions of the modern logistics industry in the short-term impact of industrial structure for the negative impact of Sichuan, Gansu, Xinjiang, the three regions development of the modern logistics industry in the short-term impact of industrial structure was not significant.