Reserch On The Effect Of On Economic Growth In China

Since 21st century, china has been faced with even more severe aging problem. Compared with other developed countries, the speed of Chinese aging development is much faster, the scale of elderly population is much larger, and the pressure taken by the problem is much greater to the economic and social development. The proportion of people at the age of 60 or above will increase to 31.3% in 2050s, which means that one among the three will be old person. Along with economic growth, rapid aging of population will give a huge impact on the development potential and sustained growth impetus. Chinese aging of population will make the population age structure change significantly. And it will also influence economic growth and social development greatly through the labor supply, labor productivity, consumption, savings, investment in human capital and Social Security. From theoretical and empirical point of view, this paper tried to explore on the bases of Chinese population aging and reality of economic and social development firstly, and then argue effects taken by population aging in order to provide some theoretical basis for Chinese adjustment strategic on population development and sustainable economic development from different perspectives.This study as a whole was divided into four steps. First, according to the demographic transition theory, it described causes of Chinese population aging systematically, and summarized the status of Chinese population aging and future development trends in detail. By summarizing the changes of many demographic indicators, it would be easier for us to get more basic demographic conditions later. Secondly, the paper introduced overall production function factors of population aging and constructed extended Solow model which was the basis for analyzing population aging by different economic growth effects. At the same time, we estimated and compared Chinese economic growth effect of population aging by different critical point of theories. Third, we had also estimated Chinese total factor production function, and analyzed the output contribution rate of each factors under the influence of population aging, at the same time, built a reasonable mathematical model of the Chinese pension expenditure, studied the rationality of Chinese pension expenditure levels and discussed future development trends. Finally, after summing up the conclusions of this study, we proposed countermeasures on how to deal with Chinese population aging and how to promote sustained economic growth.The Summary of each chapter is as follows:Chapter one is an introduction. It introduced research background, purpose, meaning, ideas and methods of study.Chapter two summarized aging of population and economic growth theory. This chapter was to introduce the theory of population growth and structural transformation, modern economic growth theory and general equilibrium theory, and other studies about the impact on economic growth caused by population aging. According to this chapter's introduction, summary of concerned theory and studies, it could help us more in-depth study later by establishing knowledge base and technical preparation.Chapter three described the development of Chinese population aging status and trends. By using demographic theory and demographic transition theory, it introduced causes, development status and future trends comprehensively and systematically. Aging of Population is inevitable result of population changes. It is a decisive result of the rapid decline of fertility. Because of the successful implementation of family planning policy, it only spent 30 years on population change, while developed countries needed 70-100 years. Along with the change of age population structure, China is experiencing rapid population aging process. And compared with developed countries, China is being faced with more serious challenges of population aging. After finishing the transformation of population, Chinese population age structure will continue making great changes within this century.Chapter four analyzed the aging effects on economic growth. From the economic theory point of view, it pointed out different influential effects on economic increase caused by population aging, and proved by using the neo-classical growth theory models in the normative analysis way. Meanwhile, it also estimated Chinese pensions from the theoretical critical point, made comparisons between actual pensions and theoretical models standard. When the economy is in steady-state equilibrium, real investment per capita and capital widening will be influenced both by "replacement effect" and by "income effect" of population aging. The combined effect of the two caused determines the direction and degree of steady equilibrium effect level. It will take different effects on steady state of capital stock per capita, economic output and labor force, it means that population aging influences of such three indicators might likely bring promotional effect , hinder effect and zero effect. In addition, this paper's estimates shows that criterions of Chinese current actual pension of population aging are higher than the one of zero point of the model. Chinese population aging on economic growth shows negative effects, and with the gradual deepening, the degree of aging will reduce the level of effective labor about the capital accumulation per unit.Chapter five make use of quantitative analysis of aging on economic growth. Firstly, by using econometrics, it estimated and analyzed changes of contribution to total factor output which was influenced by population aging. Combined with the former chapter's steady balanced growth equation, this chapter would analyze and discuss different influences and trends on the rate of real growth and balanced influences which were caused by population aging. Finally, we constructed a reasonable pension expenditure model, calculated reasonable expenditures of pension, and analyzed the development trend, and made comparative analysis on the current actual pension levels of expenditure in China. Results showed that: First, Chinese output elasticity of population aging is negative and the absolute is increasing every year. With the gradual deepening development of population aging, the flexible absolute value of population aging will increase from 2.06% in 2000 to 2.41% in 2009; population aging will have an obviously decrease on the economic total output. In addition, aging of population still makes negative effect on the contribution rate of economic output; the average contribution rate is still minus 0.34%, which shows impeding effect on economic development. Secondly, the population aging decreased the rate of economy. The steady-state level of the economic increase is 10.69% when China was not influenced by aging problem among 2000-2009; while under the influences of population aging, the average steady-state growth rate is 8.94% which declined 1.75 percentage points compared with the state without influences. Along with the improvement of population aging, the range of Chinese steady economic growth rate declines more and more year by year, and impediment function of population aging will be more significant. Finally, Chinese actual level of pension expenditures will be below reasonable level, and the reasonable level of pension spending will increase year by year. The smallest gap between actual level of pension expenditures and the reasonable level was 0.60% in 2002, while the largest gap will be 0.90% in 2007. By 2009, it presented a slow increasingly trend on Chinese reasonable level of pension spending, but after 2010, this level began to improve at a fast speed with the degree of population aging. Among them, the level in 2010 was 3.28%, and in 2050, it will increase to 8.62%. Therefore, if we don't perfect the model of Chinese Social Security, without raising the actual level of pension expenditures, the trend of population aging is bound to cause great impact on economic and social.From the last Chapter, we can get some conclusions and countermeasures from this paper. And this chapter was mainly to summarize and comment on this study, and put forward corresponding countermeasures about Chinese population aging in order to cope with these negative influences.