Forecasting Methods Of Grain Logistics

Grain logistics is the joint of production and consumption, in favor of keeping balance of the food supplies. But , at present ,the level of grain logistics in china is resting on the traditional phase, the system of grain logistics is very lagging, which have already become the main obstacle for the developing of grain logistics in china .So, we must integrate the local practicality and bring forward the feasible develop strategy under the guidance of the country layout, in order to make well layout for the developing of grain logistics, we must start at the forecasting of demand of grain logistics.In this work, the author makes micromesh study on forecasting methods of grain logistics, on the base of analyzing the factors of grain logistics, summarizing the study production inside and outside. For some limitations existing in the single models, the nonlinear combination-forecasting model for grain logistics demand is put forward in this paper. The model is verified with the data of the grain logistics demand of the Changchun city.The Paper is divided into six chapters as follows:Chapter one is introduction. This chapter expatiates on the motive and significance, summarizes the status quo of the domestic and foreign research about the grain logistics, and confirms the technology route, structure and main content of this paper.Chapter two is the basis theory of forecasting on grain logistics.. Introduces the macro circumstance of grain logistics , the content of forecasting and the steps of forecasting., analyzes the runoff and flow of our country, , on the basis of fixing the conception,specialty and analyzing the status quo of grain logistics. Chapter three is construction indexs of forecasting demand of grain logistics.It introduces the statistical status quo of the logistics in china and the setting principle to forecasting the demand of logistics, and then ,analyzes the factors of grain logistics, and that ,puts forward the indexs of forecasting demand of grain logistics.Chapter four is foundation of forecasting demand of grain logistics. First, introduce the forecasting methods of grain logistcs ,then ,sets up the nonlinear combination-forecasting model for grain logistics. The model is verified with the data of the grain logistics demand of the Changchun city. The main content is the inside and outside the demand of grain logistics in chang chun city. The result of error analyses shows that it considerably improves precision of forecast and manifests the validities for forecasting of logistics demand.Chapter five is the system innovation of grain logistics. It analyzes the inherence connection between the changing of system and the developing of logistics, then point out the insufficiency in grain logistics management in this phase.Finally,brings forward the suggestions in allusion to the insufficiency.Chapter six is conclusion and expectation.