The Orgin, Waring Index And Regulation Strategy Of Systemic Risk

In the past three decades, an important feature the development of the global system is the situation that the speed and scale of fictitious economy is much greater than that of the real economy. In the research of the relationship of fictitious economy and real economy, the domestic and international academic paid more attention to the problem that the development of the fictitious economy is more and more deviated from the entities, such as the scale of the turnover of the international currency market is much larger than that of international trade, some economist even think it is possible that this "inverted pyramid" type of economy and financial system may collapse. In short, with rapid development of fictitious economy, market fluctuation and systematic risk led to frequent financial crisis in developing and developed countries, a negative impact to the real economy, and a worldwide general decline in the growth of economy and employment levels, so countries and international organizations had began to show some concern and attention on the control of the systematic risk.Unfortunately, the understanding of economists on the causes and nature of systematic risk is not uniform. It is difficult to give a very clear definition for systematic risk. The general view of "systematic" of the existing literature on one hand refers to the situation that an event affects the function of the whole system, on the other hand refers to that an event makes the unrelated third party bear a certain cost; "systematic risk" refers to the probability of the a series of consecutive losses which will be made by an event in the system composed by a series of institutions and markets. Systematic risk is therefore a kind of "externality", is the cost over the actual value that imposed on the whole society by a single sector, the overflow and transmission of risk is the most typical feature when the systematic risk occurs, and this feature of systematic risk is not limited to the economic and financial field of only one country. Especially since the 80s of last century, the tendency of global economic integration and financial globalization makes economy of the countries vulnerable to the impact of changes of the international economic environment; the price linkage mechanism in the stock market and the foreign exchange market led to faster response to the financial systematic risk; modern communication technology and the high technology degree of financial transactions create the conditions for the spread of the information and the overflow of the risk, the results of the turbulence of one market will be spread rapidly through the computer network system and affect economic and financial situation of other parts of the world.In this paper, I use the research of the systematic risk as the breakthrough point, card the source, early warning and monitoring of systematic risk. The agent object of the "system" in this article is the whole financial institution (or the fictitious economy as an object), however, when we analysis the case we return to the concept of small systems, to highlight the status of the security market to be studied.The innovation logic of this article is that I want to research how should we recognize the source, early warning and monitoring of systematic risk of the big system-the whole financial institution and the small system-the security market, in the situation thafictitious economy is becoming the main economic activity, mainly that the expansion of fictitious economy make factors that affect the systematic risk more complicated, in the background of the fictitious financial theories, with the development experience and current situation at home and abroad financial system (mainly the stock market). The fluctuation of some assets and the market has no ability to cause fluctuations in the whole financial system in the case of undeveloped fictitious economy, but when the modern economy steps into fictitious economy and fictitious economy has basically been independent of the development of the real economy, some small fluctuations of financial market and even the price of some asset are becoming the constant independent source of the fluctuation of the whole market, as the fuse of systematic risk. In the first segment of this article I gave some necessary introduction of the definition of systematic risk, transmission mechanism and the hazard, etc. of the existing theories, and elaborated the logic, frame and innovation of this article on this basis; then in the second part of this article and the third part I focused on the effect of the rapid development of fictitious economy on the big system-overall financial institution and the small system-the security market, mainly analyzing the fluctuations caused by assets prices deviating from their original value because of the development of the fictitious economy. Although this deviation and the fluctuation of the security market is inherent, the situation that the deviation and the fluctuation has been enlarged and affected by more Irrational factors made the systematic risk of the security market and the financial institution constantly be strengthened in the tendency of fictitiousization of economy and financial liberalization. This article points out that the current systematic risk in China's security market mainly dues to the frequent policy interventions, information asymmetry, the obvious herding behavior of the investors in the security market and so on. In this section I also made empirical analysis of the measure of systematic risk of the security market and the systematic risk transfer relationship between China' security market and U.S. security market during the financial crisis; in the fourth part I studied the entire early warning system, index system and other issues of the whole systematic risk in detail, summed up the problem of the early warning system of the existing index system——just paying attention to index of the stock and net flows, lost a lot of information, I designed a flow of funds matrix which covered all institutions from a theoretical logic to represent the system of early warning; In the Part V and Part VI I put forward some views on the regulation of systematic risk, gave a summary of the China's financial market systematic risk management and put forward some thoughts that we should adopt macro-prudential supervision strategies from the overall supervision of systematic risk.The innovation of this paper is mainly the following three aspects:first, this article gave the definition of systematic risk, sorted and analyzed the content and transmission mechanism of the existing study, solved the scattered problem of the past research, and for the first time concretely analyzed the effects on the whole financial institution system and the security market system of the fictitiousization of economy; Second, the article pointed out that in the major trend of the fictitiousization of economy, the security market price's deviation from fundamentals and the fluctuation continued to increase, led the systematic risk of the security market to be strengthened constantly, gave the empirical study of the fluctuation and overflow effects between China and U.S. in financial crisis, and found that there was no systematic risk transfer relationship between the security markets of the two countries; third, the article sort of the early warning index system of the systematic risk, pointed out that the biggest problem of the existing early warning index of systematic risk is that it is based on analysis using the concept of net flow and stock, a lot of useful information are therefore neglected, especially when this method is used to analyze financial market stability and monitor systematic risk. Thus, this article designed a flow of funds matrix which covered all institutions from a theoretical logic to represent the system of early warning, and then on the basis of early warning index analyzed and summarized content of the regulatory strategy of the systematic risk-the of macro prudential supervision in detail.