China's Industrial Low-carbon Economic Development Research

Reports of IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) pointed, global warming caused by carbon emissions of human activities has significant influence to social and economic development, and if no improve, this effect will continue to expand. Currently global warming has become a hotspot. On the 2007 international conference of world economic BBS in Davis, climate change had overpowered terrorism, Arab Israeli conflicts and Iraq and had became the overriding priority. In 2003, the British used the" low carbon economy "concept in the energy white book:our energy future:create low-carbon economy ".Then this concept has been used all over the world. The development of low carbon economy and sustainable development has become the international consensus today. In the face of global warming, our country has its own economic characteristics. Economic development and industrialization is the main task of current economic development in China. The China's meaning of Low-carbon economy lies in separation of economic growth and carbon emissions. Low-carbonization of industrial development is strategic choice of low-carbon economic development in China.In this research, we take Shaanxi province as an example, divided into nine parts for our industrial low carbonization economic development.The first part is the introduction. Main content includes introduction and significance of low-carbon economy, historical evolution of low-carbon economic research, and triple meaning of low-carbon economic cognition proposed by different scholars, government and the international organization.Through to know economic developing stage of our country and connotation of industrial low-carbonization, this paper points out that the key of low-carbon economy focus on industrial low-carbonization, which is the main problem of this paper.The second part is literature review. Though researching Marx's resources and environment theory, low-carbon economic research and industrial low-carbonization, we obtained the boundary, namely enriching Marx's resources and environment theory and taking it as the guiding, demonstrating industrial low-carbonization and taking it as the strategic choice, selecting developing road of industrial low-carbonization, and searching for implement of each way, and finally constructing developing mechanism of low-carbonization.The third part is theoretical basis. First, based on Marx's total social capital reproduction theory, we expanded value compensation and physical compensation,introduced resources environment category, and formed cycle among resources environment category, production category and living category, which provides theoretical basis for low-carbon research; Second, based on the decoupling theory proposed by OECD and its development proposed by Tapio, we design elastic causal chain of industrial low-carbonization including reduction factor, energy-saving factors, industrial value creation factor and the industrial development factors; Third, based on the pollution-discharge right trade theory of Coase Theorem, we design policy mechanism.The fourth part is strategic choice of low-carbon economy. First, we compare carbon sources of our country, and then analyze regional development of low-carbon economic strategy. Based on IPAT model, we construct four dimensions of low carbon economic development model:the city low-carbonization, consumption low-carbonization, industrial low-carbonization and energy low-carbonization, and take Shaanxi province as example, obtain the conclusion:Shaanxi should take industrial low-carbonizations as strategic focus.The fifth part is path selection of industrial low-carbonization. We adopt Divisia Index Decompositions to analyze influential factors of carbon intensity of regional industry, and draw the conclusions:industrial carbon intensity and the industrial structure have the important influence to overall carbon intensity, and both alternately influence changes of overall carbon intensity. Based on the historical trend analysis of decouple elasticity, carbon intensity change of current regional industry, and the gap analysis of 2020 reduction targets, we get the conclusions:According to current situation emissions reduction, targets cannot come true and need further policy. Through the compare among the carbon intensity, total carbon emissions, and industrial elasticity, key industry of regional management are high emissions transportation, energy industry,Non-metallic minerals products industry and nonferrous metallurgy industry; Through the compare of carbon intensity and marginal carbon intensity, key industry of industrial structure adjustment are electron and communication equipment manufacturing, equipment manufacturing industry and pharmaceutical industry.The sixth part is factors analysis of carbon intensity reduction. Based on elastic logic causal chain analysis proposed by the third chapter, we get the framework of industrial low-carbonization influence factor,and analysis transportation, energy industry, non-metallic minerals products industry and nonferrous metallurgy industry etc.Finically, we draw a conclusion:low-carbon technology and industrial energy saving are the key for industrial low-carbonization.The 7th part is sustainable with scale development of strategic emerging industry. We analyzed another road of regional industrial carbon intensity that improving industrial structure and explored sustainability. Through the method of granger causality test, we draw a conclusion:strategic emerging industrial expansion will not lead to increased industrial carbon intensity, on the contrary, and will cause the low carbon intensity, etc. Therefore, scale expanding of strategic emerging industry is sustainability to industrial structure, and will constantly strengthen low-carbonization advantage.The 8th part is research on industrial low-carbonization realization mechanism. Based on Marx's total social capital reproduction theory and carbon market theory, and international carbon market, we construct carbon market basic framework which takes industrial enterprises and strategic emerging industry as main body, takes the carbon intensity as quotas foundation, contains carbon emissions trading mechanism, the verification mechanism, regulation mechanism, and build viable policy induction mechanism for two roads industrial low-carbonization.The 9th part is policy suggestions. The paper puts forward policy suggestions of Shaanxi industrial low-carbonization including:advancing industrial energy-saving, adhere to the principle of development and environment; developing strategic new industry, actively promoting industrial structure adjustment, etc.Finally, we draw the conclusions and puts forward innovation points, the defects and further research areas. Main conclusions in this paper include:First, the detachment of carbon emissions and economic development is China's meaning of low-carbon economy. Low carbon economy exist triple meaning:first, separation of the carbon emissions and economic development; second, economic development under carbon emissions; third, depending on human tacking global warming opportunity, developing the energy conservation and emission reduction. Triple meanings have different applicability. China, as a developing country, is experiencing high-speed economic development brought by industrialization, and the fossil energy consumption grows inevitably. We must face new order under global warming, the energy crisis and low-carbon international competition. The first heavy meaning suitable for Chinese and Shaanxi follows low-carbon economy meanings.Second, industrial low-carbonization is China's strategic emphasis of low-carbon economic development. Industrialization is developing targets at present, and this process is not complete, such as rural surplus labor is still widely exist; manufacturing Oriented by industry is still main body. Based on the deformation of IPAT model, the paper take Shaanxi province as an example, and demonstrates that industrial low-carbonization Oriented by industry is strategic choice of low-carbon economy.Third, reducing carbon intensity in regional industry need two directions simultaneously efforts: the carbon intensity and industrial structure. Through decomposition analysis of ten kinds pillar industry in Shaanxi from 1998 to 2008, we can find that the carbon intensity and industrial structure alternately play a decisive role, and reducing industry overall carbon intensity will need two directions simultaneously efforts; Through the forecast, we can find that realization of 2020 reduction target is difficult and need further measures.Fourth, reducing carbon intensity of industry emissions focused on energy-saving. Based on judgment of the total carbon emissions, carbon emissions intensity and the industrial elasticity, we get the conclusion that high emissions industries conclude transportation, energy industry, non-metallic minerals products industry and nonferrous metallurgy industry; Though reduction elasticity, emission elasticity and value creation elasticity, causal chain framework can analyze reasons of industrial low-carbonization. So we get conclusion:Energy-saving has main influence and can reduce carbon emissions in most of the year; but emissions reduction is opposite. Therefore for high emissions industry, energy saving factors is the key to determine the carbon intensity change. Technology development and industrial emission shall be used as the key to the development of low-carbonization.Fifth, scale development of strategic emerging industry would not affect the improvement of the industrial structure. The key to improve the industrial structure should aim at low-carbon industry and strategic emerging industry. Based on the choice of the carbon intensity and growth potential, the key industries are electronic communication and equipment manufacturing, equipment manufacturing industry and pharmaceutical industry. Through empirical analysis of the industry scale, industrial GDP and industrial carbon intensity, we get the conclusion following:one is the industrial expansion will not lead to high carbon intensity; two is industrial expansion will not lead to low industry GDP. Therefore, we should insist on scale expansion of strategic emerging industry, and realize the industrial structure improvement as soon as possible.Sixth, Marxist economics has the ability to explain low carbon economy. On the long-term, since we can not classify physical compensation, capital and surplus value into theory system, many people understand the basic principles of Marxism uneasily.This study will classify resources environment into Marxist economics theory, expanded social capita theory of Marxist, and form cycle among resources environment category, production category and living category. The realization of low-carbon economy is the guarantee to prepaid capital and surplus value, and value and physical compensation in the resources environment category.Seventh, CO2 emissions market is suggested to be created to achive policy objectives. Mechanism of value compensation and value redistribution of resources and environment category includes lowdown taxes and emission trading, of which the former is not easy to execution; the latter has its own advantages. Through summing up other CO2 emissions markets, China's carbon CO2 emissions market should include the transactions body, quotas mechanism, accounting mechanism, and performance mechanism. Transaction body should be from the scale enterprise of high emissions and strategic emerging industry; trade quotas should take carbon intensity as the foundation, etc. China's CO2 emissions market should include carbon market at present and future market.