The Risk Analysis Of Port Construction Environment And Economic Evaluation For Pearl River Delta Areas

In view of the important role of Pearl River Delta economic development in national economy, this paper discusses the tremendous influence of the port construction to economic growth of the Pearl River Delta areas firstly. As the sea environments are constantly changing, the frequency and intensity of typhoon is gradually altering. Disasters associated with typhoon had the trend of aggrandizement. The existing and planning projects need to be taken risk analysis under the catastrophic natural environmental conditions, and the disaster must be nipped in the bud. The double layer nested muti-objective model for typhoon disaster was brought to the risk analysis of engineering structures.Focusing on the ambiguous words in the nuclear engineering specifications, such as "probable maximum tropical cyclone", "probable maximum storm surge," "Design Basis flood", the joint probability analysis has been carried out to certify the precise return period of the water level. The theory of GUA and GSA combined with Multivariate Compound Extreme Value Distribution (MCEVD) was brought to the analysis of construction failure probability.Because the port construction has the characteristics of long operations time, high investment, high economic risks and so on. For a port construction, a comprehensive risk analysis was taken to the location selection, development scale, and anti-economic fluctuations. It is a new attempt for project risk analysis.