The Research Of National Forecast Model Of Led Lighting

The new generation of light-source technology represented mainly by LED is recognized generally as one of the most energy-saving and environmental protection technology. China is a big manufacturer and consumer of lighting products in the world. Research of such technology development will have a very important practical and strategic significance for China's lighting and energy sectors.Through extensive survey and study and by means of mathematical statistics, stochastic analysis theory, technical innovation theory, and uncertainty analysis theory, this dissertation establishes the quantities'model imitating the development of LED in China's lighting market, and forecast the trend of China's future illumination demand and electricity consumption. Major creation works are as follows:1. First organize large-scale sampling survey and study on China's current lighting sector, and make use of statistics theory to conduct systematic analysis of lighting electricity consumption, as well as the major features of China's lighting market. The confidence level of the analysis data from the survey may reach 95% and it solves the problem of incomplete and inexact illumination data in the past.2. Go beyond the traditional method of forecasting the trend of lighting demand directly with the growth in the demand of lighting products, and adopt"light quantity demand"and"light quality distribution"indexes in combination with the development of buildings in China to forecast the demand for general lighting and its quality mixture in China, which takes a new step in the illumination forecast method of China. According to the result, the demand for general lighting in China will be increased by 4.3% in following decade.3. Make use of technical innovation theory to conduct theoretical analysis of the marketing process of LED illumination technology in the field of ordinary illumination of China and deduce several possible LED technical growth curves.4. Make use of consumer's behavior analysis method and life-cycle cost comparison method to study the product replacement process and product structure trend on the lighting market, and creatively develop the quantitative model of imitating the trend of LED lighting in Chinese's lighting sector. According to the results, ifLED lighting can achieve technical and price breakthroughs, it is expected that LED will be competitive in Chinese's general lighting market around 2013 and may theoretically take up over 65% of the lighting market by the year 2020, the potential of electricity saving is about 100 Twh compared to non-LED market.5. Adopt Monte Carlo stochastic sampling statistics and test method to conduct uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of the results of model forecast according to the distribution features of some model parameters. According to the results, it is probable that by the year 2020, the demand of China for general lighting attains 19,915,000 billion Lmh and total demand for electricity consumption attains 213.8 Twh. That means if LED lighting have a healthy development environment in China, the electricity consumption of lighting can maintain basically at the level of 2002 even lighting demand of China doubles by the year 2020.