On-line Prediction And Simulation Technique Research On Ship Motion Attitude

A huge ship was disturbed by the environmental factors such as sea wave and ocean current. The swing existed inevitably, especially in the bad sea condition, which would bring about prodigious safe hidden trouble for ship's operation. If people could predict the ship motion attitude or motive trend advancing several seconds, it was of great significance in the instruction and expiation of the taking off and landing of carrier plane, controlling of reduction swing and the launching of guided missile on a ship.The prediction of ship motion attitude in the sea wave commonly indicated extremely short-time prediction or real-time prediction, which predicted the ship e motion attitude in the future shorter time (3 s or 10s) with some theory and technology. The task in this paper was done in the premise of referring to lots of domestic and overseas information and combining with the actual condition in domestic. The research was done mainly in this paper:Firstly, several prediction methods were researched and compared. By the statistical analysis of ship motion attitude and equivalent argument about ARMA model and AR model, AR model was identified to be the mathematic model for ship motion attitude prediction. It was done further that the AR model parameters estimation. RLS algorithm was adopted to estimate the parameters of AR model and CAR model, which realized the real-time online estimation and modifiability of model parameters. It was researched that the statistical characteristic of AR model parameters estimation. In addition, it was discussed that the confidence and the confidence interval length of AR model parameters estimation. Based on probability, it was deduced that the computing formula of the confidence interval length, which proved the asymptotic behavior of AR model parameters estimation. It was adopted respectively that AR model based on ship attitude observation and...