| Based on the remote sensing and GIS technique, it studies the landscape pattern evolution in the process of urbanlization. It seeks harmonious and balanced development for the relationship between human beings and land in the urban inner. It can provide effective precision support for land use, urban constructing and regional sustainable development for Xuzhou city. So it has important scientific and practical meanings. And it will provide effective reference for similar study in other region.This paper chooses Xuzhou urban area as research object and selects the Landsat TM/ETM+ remote sensing image acquired in 1987,1995,2001 and 2007 as major data source. On the basis of remote sensing image analysis and ground survey for the landscape present situation in Xuzhou urban area, it studies the landscape pattern evolution and it builds the technical system for monitoring, analzing, evaluating, predicting based on the theories about landscape ecology,3S technique, and.the landscape analysis method.(1) it puts forward to the classification system of landscape, and studies the extracting methods for landscape information in Xuzhou urban area, then it puts forwards to some classification methods suitable for research areaIt divides the landscape type in the study area into six classes such as water, construction land, woodland, farmland, bare land and other vegetations. And it carries out classification processing based on MDC, MLC, SVM, DTC, OOC methods for the Landsat TM/ETM+ remote sensing images. Through the precision evaluation and contrast analysis for different classification methods, it puts forward effective classification method for 6 different landscapes respectively. And it finds that SVM method is suitable for study area. Then it maks landscape type distribution map for every period based on SVM method.(2) it reveals the characteristics of land use landscape evolution through analyzing the landscape pattern evolutionIt computes some landscape pattern indices using the soft Frgastatsversino3.3. It studies the characteristics of landscape pattern evolution from 1987 to 2007. And it quantitatively describes the transformation cases of every landscape type from 1987 to 1995, from 1995 to 2001, and from 2001 to 2007 using landscape transformation matrix. It studies the landscape pattern evolution in class level and in landscape level. It gets the characteristics of landscape evolution in Xuzhou urban area. The farmland and construction land play a leading role.(3)it studies the scale effects about landscape index, it can provide the basis for selecting the granularity and amplitudeBased on corresponding theories about landscape ecology, it analyzes the granularity effect and amplitude effect of the land use and landscape evolution about Xuzhou urban area for 20 years. It finds that the land use landscape pattern will change obviously with the change of granularity effect and amplitude effect of the landscape pattern of regional land use. When analyzing the landscape pattern of study area, it needs to adopt suitable study scale and landscape pattern index according to different object and objective.(4)it studies the land use landscape evolution driving mechanism, and it reveals the dominating factors promoting the land use landscape evolutionThe driving mechanism for land use landscape evolution has been studied using.principal component analysis. The conclusion is that the economic development factor and population factor are two dominating driving factors.(5)it puts forward to the prediction model for landscape pattern evolution, and it predicts the landscape pattern in 2013According to the demand for urban landscape pattern simulation and forecast, it carries out the case study of landscape pattern simulation and forecast adopted Markov model and CA-Markov model. The test proved that CA-Markov model is better than Markov model in simulation effect. Then it forecasts the landscape pattern evolution of study area in 2013 year based on CA-Markov model. It gets every landscape type evolution individual.
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