Research On The Diffusion Mechanism Of Public Emergency

Since the beginning of the 21st century, public emergency (PE) have beenincreasingly erupting in a large scale and high frequency. Up against the frequency ofPE, lots of academics starts to focus on the study of early-warning and emergencysystem. However, PE often happens unexpectedly and comprehensively withcalamitous effect, which makes early-warning and emergency system based ontraditional theories difficult to predict, control and handle PE Richard Choularton(2001). Merle Jacob and Tomas Hellstrom's research proves that mechanicalcognition about PE will greatly influence the handling and controlling efficiency ofPE. Namely, knowing the diffuse mechanism will help us to establish an efficientearly-warning management mode. Therefore, the author expects to offer antheoretical foundation for the establishment of early-warning system.Three Gorges Dam Area becomes a very important region in our countrybecause of the fame of the Three Gorges Project. This area has a well-knowncomprehensive function of flood-prevention, hydropower, navigation and tourism.Whereas, resulted from enormous changes of natural and artificial environment, italso exists much circumstance, which is likely to cause PE. Once a PE bursts out inthe dam area, it may induce social chain response.As a result, society panic wouldprobably be caused. Even worse, it can evolve regional social crisis or even nationalcrisis.So typical characters in Three Gorges makes the study on the diffusemechanism of PE in this area has a relatively important theoretical and practicalmeaning, not only for typical strategic projects and establishment in our country butalso for the regional early-warning system.Directed by the early-warning theory, combining theories and methods ofcalamity management, systematic science, scene analysis, structure equation model, systematic dynamics, etc, the paper organically intercrosses and merges manysubjects in the frontier academic to deserve high academic research.The whole paperis composed of three parts.In the first part, the paper explains the demands on decision-makingmanagement when the PE is in diffuse condition. Then it points out the inefficiencyof the decision-making in lack of the study on diffuse mechanism. After that, basedon the documentary summary, the paper ascertains its study purpose of the paper,study skeleton and relevant technology route.It also defines and explains someconception, which are used in it.In the second part, based on the comprehensive analysis of PE and the definitionof their corresponding conception, firstly the paper defines the conception of PE andanalyzes various types of PE. Secondly, according to the positive study, it proposesPE types in Three Gorges Dam Area. Thirdly, the paper initially analyzes the diffuserelation for PE and points out concrete PE types, which it is going to study. Finally,Kete Lee quantity form and structure equation model is creatively adopted in thepaper to define the PED route.In the third part, according to the appointed PED relation, the paper assumes andfixes on five types of PED route.On the basis of PED route; it begins to make anestimating index study on the secondary incidents and its influencing relation.In the fourth part, based on the conclusion from the second and the third part, thepaper innovatively adopts the method of systematic dynamics to design the SD modelfor PED. In addition, the methods of expert consultation and documentary inquiry areemployed to design emulative PED model above and acquire the diffuse status data ofsecondary incidents.In the fifth part, from the model emulation for PED, essential aberrance modesare put forward. Then after summing up the condition in which aberrance modesoccur, the author concludes safely that the existence of the structure coupling modesfor PE is the biggest contributors to their complexity. After that, on the foundation ofanalyzing PED system chart, an experiment on the frangibility of the PED system ismade so that it obtains the frangibility.In the end, the author originally proposes fourdiffuse mechanisms for PED. In the sixth part, according to the PED mechanism, characters and principles forthe decision-making mode design are described in the paper. Then the papercreatively designs a decision-making mode when PE is diffused. Meanwhile, it pointsout the concrete content for the running of decision-making modes, which involves inthe intention choice for the decision-making modes, the optimization fordecision-making procedure, the association for the decision-making main body etc.In the seventh part, to full text summarize, discuss that this text exist deficiencyand study further.