| The grain issue is very important to the national economy and people's livelihood. China is the biggest country for it's population in the world, and it's a big grain produce and consumption country. China feeds the 22 percent population to the world with 9 percent arable land to the world, so it has practical meaning to study China's grain issue, and as an enlightenment to deal with the global food insecurity problem.From the angle of the world, we can produce sufficient food to support the whole population in the long future time. Under the economic globalization and district integration condition, the trade scale of the world is expanding. However, it is very slow to decrease hungry.From the angle of domestic, China's grain production greatly changed after more than 20 years reformation and opening up, the supply and the demand were "balanced in general" and " supply surplus occurred in harvest years" ,it looked phased surplus. And the accession to the WTO is favorable to the development of foreign trade of agricultural product of our country, is favorable to solve the problems of food security by the two kinds of resources and markets of the domestic and international.Meanwhile the concept of food security got very great development in the 20th century. The initial concept is only the term that the physiology needs, people realized later that the ability to obtain food economically is equally important. In addition, micro nutrition plus the environmental sanitation and security drink the water all influence the food security directly. Generally speaking, it requires people to recognize the problems of food security with the views of physiological, society, economic and environment.Base on this, the thesis addressed the Total Food Security Concept (TFS) with normative study firstly; Then combined qualitative analysis with quantitative analysis, compared with many kinds of food security evaluation methods and the intellective BP-ANN model, improved the Heilig's Evaluation Matrix, constructed the Total Food Security Evaluation Matrix(TFS Matrix), analyzed grain-production, circulate and consuming all-sidedly; At last, analyzed and compared with different modes that can realize our country food security, and studied the rationality and feasibility of food cooperative security further using the cooperative game model.The TFS pursuits sustainable grain production, stable and smooth grain circulation, fair and suitable grain consumption increase. On the grain-production aspect, there exist three kinds of levels of productive potentialities of natural output, economic output and ecological output; In the field of grain circulation, there exist three kinds of material flow movement forms of grain yield fluctuating, grain imports and exports fluctuating and grain storage fluctuating; In the field of grain consume, there exist three kinds of levels of primary demand, the well-to-do demand and the well-off demand. TFS requires to trade-off among the three output levels of natural output, economic output and ecological output, to control the threematerial flow movement forms of grain yield fluctuating, grain imports and exports fluctuating and grain storage fluctuating, to strategily develop three consume levels from primary demand, well-to-do demand to well-off demand.About the food security evaluation method, this thesis compared and analyzed the rate of grain-production trend evaluation method, the grain supply and demand early warning system evaluation method, the boomy analytic method and food security coefficient synthetic evaluation method. Base on this, the thesis take in the artificial neural network (ANN), used the Back Propagation (BP) calculation way to construct an intellective evaluation model. Besides, it improved the Heilig's Evaluation Matrix, addressed the Total Food Security Evaluation Matrix(TFS matrix).Use the TFS matrix, this thesis evaluated the nine factors in the three fields of food security one by one. At production field, three factors of lands / arable land resource... |
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