Study On Building "Tcm Yunqi—weather" Model In Guangzhou Area

1. ObjectiveYunQi, the abbreviation of Five Circuits and Six Qi. YunQi Theory is originated in the "Huangdi Neijing", and got perfected after the Song and Ming dynasty. Under the guidance of the thinking of "human is corresponding to the heaven", the ancient scholars formed YunQi Theory through observation and summarization of the climate changes, and thus to clarify the law of human diseases and climatic catastrophes. The whole doctrine was formulated and applied under the guidance of "climate and weather change-YunQi-disease and calamity-measures against disease and calamity in future" thought.This thought determines the research framework of YunQi Theory, so to study the relationship between climatic changes and YunQi is the primary task within the framework. As a modern specialized discipline on atmospher and weather research, meteorology has obtained in-depth and significant findings and experiences, and plays an important role in various fields. It is necessary for carrying out research on weather and climate with the support of meteorology. In this context, this study is put forward to find out scientific and rigorous methods for study of YunQi, to find out quantitative methods for YunQi Theory, and to lay the foundation for studying and applying medical meteorology of TCM2. The MethodologyThe first task in this study is to find out the approaches to combine YunQi Theory with meteorology based on each disipline's characteristics. According to the Extension theory, the problem to be solved is defined as:To apply meteorology in studing YunQi Theory. The solution that make these incompatible problems to be compatible can be found through building an extension model on it and runing a series of extension transformations on this model, and can be expressed as:To set the object hierarchy to be weather condition, and use the values of all meteorological elements as quantified description of YunQi pattern values, while to describe the laws on the upper hierarchies with YunQi language.The features how YunQi Theory describes the climatic changes show in four aspects:①To realize qualitative description with using Five phases and Yin-yang symbols to be the markers, using five phases and six elements to sumarize the law of the climatic changes.②To sumarize the climatic change law according to different time periods, the overall law is composed of climatic change laws in all time periods, then form the YunQi expression pattern;③To form YunQi movement law and the timing value sequence of YunQi structure by combining space with time.④To deduce what climatic change will he with logical reasoning and simple mathematic calculation by using qualification as the guiding ideology, supplemented with the relative quantification method, based on the values of the YunQi factors, mutual relations among these factors, and the Five Phases Theory. The doctrine attributes the driving force causing climate changes to be the movement of Five Circuites and Six Qi, it is expressed as various timing value sequences of YunQi pattern. The timing value sequences are cyclic, and a cycle is considered to be60tropical years. To infer the climatic characteristics expressed as Six Factors in certain period which is determined by the value of YunQi pattern, and then to conclude and describe what the climatic changes should be in accordance with Five Phases Theory.The characteristics of the meteorology in presenting the atmosphere, weather phenomena and their variation can be summarized as four aspects:①Use a number of physical quantities to represent the atmospheric properties, weather phenomena and its changes with quantitative methods;②Take disciplines of mathematics, physics, and their branches as the basis for all study;③To describe the mechanism of the whole atmosphere and the phenomenon of climate change;④Meteorology attributes the variation of weather phenomena to the state, movement, and interaction of the atmospheric structure components and factors, which are manifested in the form of physical mathematics and physics equations of meteorological elements and atmospheric composition attributes. The calculation results of these equations express the exact state values at a certain time point. Meteorology infers the possible specific weather conditions and phenomena on the basis of the values of the meteorological elements at a certain time point, which are calculated through these equations with historical observation values of the meteorological elements.To use all meteorological elements to describe YunQi patterns should go with the following steps:①To collect the historical measured meteorological data;②To deduce the values of all YunQi patterns in the same year, then build up the corresponding YunQi pattern vectors;③To construct "YunQi—Weather" equations;④To separate YunQi factors in these equations;⑤To solve the YunQi symbolic variables;⑥To confirm the calculated value of the YunQi pattern according to the period to be forecasted;⑦To sum up all symbolic variable values."YunQi—Weather" model consists of two parts:the calculation model and the result model. The calculation model includes "YunQi—weather" equation group and its solution algorithm, and the result model is the solution of the calculation model.In accordance with the method mentioned as above, the data that to build up the "YunQi—Weather" model requires includes two parts:YunQi data and meteorological observation data. Meteorological observation data contains measured values of continuous60year period in the desired region, and YunQi data is YunQi pattern values in the corresponding years. The implementation should go along with the following steps:①To construct "YunQi—Weather equation;②To select the meteorological elements;③To solve "YunQi Weather " equation group and build up "YunQi—Weather" model;④To validate "YunQi—Weather" model;⑤To carry out research based on the model.3. Solving "YunQi—Weather" Model In GuangZhou Area3.1DataThe measured meteorological data come from Guangzhou area from1951to2010, including temperature (T), relative humidity (M), atmospheric pressure (P), wind velocity (W), precipitation (R), duration of sunshine(S), and their change speed and acceleration, a total of18factors. YunQi data is YunQi pattern values from year1951to2010. Modeling is based on meteorological data from1952to2009, and measured data of2010and1951are used for model validation.3.2MethodTo build up in accordance with the method mentioned in the methodology, then compare the calculated values with the actual observations to validate the model. In this study, the validation is based on YunQi stage1to6of year2010and YunQi stage6to10of year1951. The result is:the number of meteorological elements of which the proportion of calculated values failed between the historical minimum and maximum values during the same period higher than80%was35,18in year2010and17in year1951, a total is97%. The statistics on the gap between the calculation values and the measured values-show no significant difference, the number of meteorological elements which show statistical coincidence rate higher than80%was20, accounting for56%of total elements, while between80%to50%was11, accounting for31%, total accounted for87%.3.3Result"YunQi—Weather" model of GuangZhou area is the result of this study. The validation of this model show:①The number of meteorological elements that the gap between their calculation values and the measured values less than20calculation units was27,13in year2010and14in1951, a total proportion is75%.②The number of meteorological element whose measured and calculated values have the same anomaly proportion higher than50%is7in year2010, and6in1951, accounting for36%in total.③According to the factor analysis conclusion of the model, the number of factors wi th total contribution rate to the weather conditions higher than95%was9.3.4ConclusionModel validation conclusions show that the selected meteorological elements in this model was effective and calculated values of the meteorological elements in all YunQi stages were mostly coincided with the observations, so this model is effecitve. The gap between calculated values and average values of every YunQi stage show quite difference to the observations. The causes that result in this deviation may be as following: the model is more suitable for continuous meteorological elements; only58 years of meteorological data are used to construct the model, less than60years—a whole cycle.4. Conclusion and achievements of this studyConclusions of this study:①Describing YunQi pattern with all meteorological elements is a rigorous and feasible way in studing YunQi Theory;②Model ing in advanced mathematics and theoretical mechanics disciplines with using meteorological element as descriptor is an effective method to quantify YunQi Theory;③Modeling and solving the model with the use of computer is an effective way to study the relationship between YunQi and weather conditions;④YunQi Theory is applicable to weather analysis in GuangZhou area.Achievements of this study:①Scheme of studing YunQi Theory with describing YunQi pattern with all meteorological elements;②Computer program to build and solve "YunQi—Weather" model;③"YunQi—Weather" model of GuzngZhou area.In accordance with the research framework of YunQi Theory, all studies in this field should be done by4steps gradually:①The relations between the climate change and YunQi;②The relations between calamity, climate disaster and YunQi;③The relations between YunQi and disease;④Preparation for the future based on YunQi. These4steps are not separated from each other, studies on each level can only be carried out on the basis of the conclusions of its previous step;⑤The number of YunQi factors which can determine the weather conditions in Guangzhou;⑥It can not be considered that obvious correspondence exist between YunQi factor values and meteorological elements;⑦Building and solving "YunQi—Weather" model is an effective way to analyze weather condition in GuangZhou area."YunQi—Weather" model is the foundation of all studies of YunQi Theory. It implements the quantization of YunQi Theory and the combination with meteorology, so that it is an effective tool for studies in this field. In this study, the "YunQi—Weather" model isn't perfect yet, so that it need to be improved gradually with modern science and technology, especially with the theories, ideas and study results from meteorology and climatology field.