Study On Water Risk Management In Water Source Area Of South-to-North Water Diversion Middle Line

Water resource plays an important role in the economy, culture and society development, and it increasingly becomes a strategic resource. The South-to-North water diversion project which makes the water around Danjiangkou Reservoir become a strategic resource also faced severe challenge in its own development and management. Being the water source, Danjiangkou Reservoir needs to improve its management. So the reservoir meets a dilemma on water protection and economy development. Guarantee Water security is an essential work for the South-to-North water diversion project. This dissertation attempts to resolve the water management dilemma in this project to provide good quality water resource for Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan region as well as guarantee good condition in water environment and water developing potential.This dissertation contains 6 chapters, obey the following logic:theory analysis-empirical analysis- case study. In introduction part, we briefly introduce the research background and significance as well as literature review and research approach. In chapter 2, we summarize some relative theory basis and describe current situation of water resource management in water source area. After ranking the conflict, we determine the planning district boundary. With the risk of water source and key points of conflict identification, we further analyze some possible modes for the current water risk management in water source area. In chapter 3, Identifying risk type on the map of water source district terrain and hydrology, we obtain the data of key point of risk, risk components and risk ranking. Then we use Logistic regression analysis to estimate some possible risk that various environmental factors bring to the water source area. In chapter 4, using Multivariate statistical techniques, we try to identify and assess risk elements from large amount and multi-source messy information, further the risk quantization analysis also included. Based on the above, we carry on some empirical statistic analysis for risk factors. And chapter 5, analyzing potential involved factors of water risk and recognizing risk feature in water source area, we put up a series of water risk management count measure for water source area. In chapter 6, we draw the main conclusion and suggest the future research plan.We try to breakthrough on content system and research views in this dissertation. We focus on the creation on research approach, conclusion and ideology. Our main creation is following:firstly, conduct comprehensive analysis on potential response of entering water source area and water risk features, and then assess the risk source and key point of conflict which improve the theoretical basis. Secondly, integrate humanities, nature and social economy into one research framework which forms a three-dimensional research mode, that's a research view creation. Thirdly, divide the water source into three zones for risk identification and management and conduct special control and choose policy tools according to different characteristics, environmental behavior and environmental stress levels of three zones, that's a government mechanism creation.