Research On Modeling Technologies Of Grey Prediction

Grey system theory is one of the major methods for studying and solving uncertain problems of thepresent world, and modeling technologies of grey prediction is an important component of greysystem theory, undergoing30years' development, it has obtained many encouraging researchachievements. However, as an emerging cross-discipline, its theory system is still expected to befurther enriched and perfected, based on this, the paper in-depth studied grey prediction modelingtechnologies from modeling thought innovation, modeling object expansion, modeling methodimprovement, modeling sequences optimization, etc, and the main achievements of this paper are asfollowing.⑴Based on the centre of geometric gravity encircled by interval grey number and whitenizationweight function,the new calculation method for the "kernel" of interval grey number is presented,which effectively figures out the deficiency of the traditional method that only can be used tocalculate the "kernel" of interval grey number on the condition of symmetric form Whitenizationweight function, in this way,the kernel of interval grey number of unsymmetricform triangle andtrapezoid Whitenization weight function can be calculated. Apart from this, the paper also expandsthe traditional measure methods for degree of grey of interval grey by acreage method, which can beused to calculate degree of grey of interval grey of a variety of whitenization weight function⑵With the limitations of current existing grey prediction models whose modeling objects areonly based on real number sequences and cannot build models for interval grey number sequence, thispaper in-depth researched the grey prediction modeling methods of interval and discussed detailedlythe modeling thought, derivation process and modeling steps. Consequently, the modeling objects ofgrey predction models extend to interval grey number sequence from real number sequence, and itenriches and perfects the theory system of grey prediction models.⑶Discrete grey number is an important manifestation of grey information, and it has a veryimportant significance to study a grey prediction model based on the sequence of discrete greynumber. This paper puts forward two concepts: standard discrete grey numbers and grey unit cells,and study the modeling methods of grey prediction model based on discrete grey number sequenceaccording to the case of the value distribution information of discrete grey number is known orunknown, introduces detailedly derivation process and modeling steps. Consequently, the modelingobjects of grey prediction models extend to discrete grey number sequence from real numbersequence and it expands the applied scope of grey prediction models.⑷Traditional grey prediction technologies establish exponent models based on accumulating generation sequence which satisfies the law of quasi-exponent, and accomplish predictions of theunknown world. However, when modeling sequence has alrealy the characteristic of approximatenonhomogeneous index, the procedure of accumulating generation maybe destroy this feature. Thispaper converts an approximate nonhomogeneous exponential growth sequence into a homogeneousone and a direct modeling method that omits the procedure of accumulating generation, through those,two different grey prediction models are built, and it enhances the prediction ability of grey models dowith such kind of specific sequences.⑸with oscillation sequence grey model's build, the existing modeling technology of greywaveform prediction not only needs large amount of data but also cannot do such situation of beyondexisting data value range. This paper builds a smooth algorithm of oscillation sequence to compressits amplitude, and enhance the degree of smoothness of modeling sequence, after this, we canestablish a grey prediction model which is suitable for oscillation sequence, and it can improve thesimulation and forecast accuracy of grey prediction model of oscillation sequence.