Reseaching On Dynamic Assessment Of Typhoon Disaster System Based On Multi-sources

Survive and development of human were accompanied by natural disasters. typhoons, earthquakes, floods, thunderstorms and tornadoes, snow storms, avalanches, volcanic eruptions, heat waves, mountain landslide (debris flow), tidal (tsunami) were 10 types natural disasters threating to human survive by the World Meteorological Organization. Death toll caused by the typhoon was the highest in 10 types natural disasters, especially in Asia. It was necessary for us to carry out the typhoon disaster damage assessment. For hazard assessment was a comprehensive reflection of the disaster, not only the fundamental basis for mitigation decision-making, but also social and economic development plan.Typhoon disaster assessment was focused on direct economic loss assessment usually. Direct economic loss assessment was calculated by variously movable and immovable property with the conventional method, which was lack of real-time, for the result of economic loss were usually calculated after few days, weeks or months. The assessment of economic losses was relatively difficult for lacking of basic statistical data and not a effective way to estimate the impact in time scale. By the number of disasters, disaster losses was composited by interaction of factors, some of them can be measured by the precise mathematical model, while others not be described by accurate mathematical model,whose value may change within a certain range, so it was difficult to get an accurate value only can be give a rough estimate. For typhoon was a dynamic complex system, its structure, strength, path, wind and rain at various stages will produce a series of dramatic changes in the same location at different times. We must quickly grasp at disaster losses in the process of disaster prevention and mitigation of typhoon disaster, but the traditional statistical methods was effectiveness in the typhoon disaster emergency, so we must explore new methods of disaster assessment .Therefore, the typhoon's real-time dynamic assessment was the key to good disaster prevention and mitigation.There were some problems existing in typhoon disaster assessment, typhoon real-time evaluation system based on ArcGIS platform was developed by extension method with the numerical weather prediction, automatic weather station, doppler radar as the information sources to carry out typhoon disaster assessment. Main progresses were as follows:( 1) The long time series of numerical weather prediction data, low accuracy, high spatial and temporal resolution of radar data, high precision, low spatial and temporal resolution of the automatic weather station data were processed to unified format to the real-time assessment of typhoon disasters, which were provided timely and effective information sources for pre-disaster ,disaster in the evaluation, after-disaster assessment.( 2) Extension of the typhoon Disaster assessment was elaborated in detail based on researching the implication relationship between typhoon disaster assessment and extension theory, which provides a theoretical basis for establishment the extension model of typhoon.(3)The typhoon disaster was caused by disaster pregnant environment, disaster factors, disaster bodies. Typhoon assessment factors were identified from disaster pregnant environment, disaster factors, disaster bodies based on typhoon disaster in the history database of Hainan Island. The comprehensive pregnant factor, economic vulnerability as static factors, precipitation, rainfall intensity, maximum wind speed as a dynamic factors, which were chosen to main factors of typhoon disaster assessment and determined the division of disaster level.(4)A method of typhoon Assessment was put forward based on the extension theory, from "Selecting cell→determining the factors→rating of result→determining threshold→standard matter-element model→weight of factors→assessment model."Correlation associated with the extension function value was used to describe affiliation between various features with the studied parameters, various features of correlation belonging or not belonging to were extended to quantitative description, so typhoon assessment begin from qualitative to quantitative assessment, the spatial resolution was 1km×1km. It was more difficult in quantitative expression the loss of the disaster. Different levels of hazard intensity were represented by the level of the interval number of disaster assessment model,which were established by numerical weather prediction, automatic weather station, doppler radar as the information sources.The mid-point correlation functions were applied in static factors, the side functions in dynamic factors, such as precipitation intensity, precipitation , the maximum wind speed; factor domain, domain-wide section were applied to establish standards element model of disaster assessment; The precipitation and wind interpolation method were improved. For extension algorithm in defect, the model was improved more accurately to reflect the actual degree of the disaster losses.(5)Dynamic spatial and temporal database was established.The various parameters were determined by statistical methods based on typhoon disaster database of Hainan Island; real-time assessment system of typhoon disaster was developed based on COM and ArcObjects technology. The system realized the visualization of information of typhoon, which was greatly improved disaster prevention and mitigation of typhoon disasters, decision-making.( 6) Typhoon disasters Assessment system was applied in typhoon 2009 Goni, by compared with the actual result, the result indicated that the system was feasible in disasters Assessment.