Research On The Price Formation Mechanism Of Jujube

Red dates with high nutrition and health value, has become an important choice in people’s daily healthy diet, and enter the market at an unprecedented high level of consumer demand, resulting in drastic changes in product prices and increased risk.Compared to grain and other bulk agricultural products, the main production, the main selling area in China, by the international market supply and demand, exchange rate and other factors, its price volatility is mainly affected by the impact of the domestic market. The agricultural commodities of the policy support framework has been basically established, but dates is not related to the national economy and the people’s livelihood of agricultural commodities, not "food basket" project products covered by,the lack of corresponding price control measures. The lack of changes in supply and demand, government intervention, and electronic trading market is imperfect, which lead to fluctuations in the price of jujube more complex, frequent climate disasters is let the jujube production and difficult to predict, abnormal price fluctuations have occurred from time to time, an increase of jujube market instability, but also highlights the necessity of research on jujube price changes. Scientific analysis and accurate assessment of jujube market price formation and fluctuation of the influencing factors, explore the jujube prices formation mechanism, for reasonable analysis of product supply and demand, forecast market risk, guiding the production of jujube and the promotion of peasant incomes has important significance.In this paper, red dates price as the research object, carried out a series of theoretical and empirical research on the formation mechanism of the price of red dates. Based on the theory of labor value, the theory of supply and demand, consumer behavior theory, the price is expected to pass the introduction, theory and a series of price theory, combined with the related research at home and abroad, starting from the production supply and consumption demand situation of China red dates, using the description statistics and the X11 seasonal adjustment method and HP filteringmethod of econometric model of red dates the history of price fluctuations and volatility, the price fluctuation history of red dates mainly from the production price and the market price, the market price volatility analysis of red dates mainly from the seasonal fluctuation characteristics and fluctuations in market supply and demand;and then based on the theory of production from the supply perspective, from the view of consumption demand, circulation and other factors from the perspective of four aspects construction of red dates price formation and fluctuation theory analysis framework, system analysis of each factor affecting the price formation process of red dates Degrees, analysis of the influence of jujube price formation and fluctuation factors to construct the theoretical framework of this study; followed by, respectively,from the production supply perspective, from the view of consumption demand,circulation perspective three point of empirical analysis of jujube price formation mechanism; on this basis, using non parametric kernel density method of jujube price volatility risk assessment. Finally supply management, guide the demand, circulation management, price risk early warning from the four aspects to put forward a series of perfect jujube prices formation mechanism countermeasures and suggestions.The main conclusions are as follows:(1) The production supply and consumption demand of red dates. From the production supply point of view, the distribution of Chinese jujube is extensive, but mainly concentrated in the northern provinces, red jujube production in general has shown a steady growth trend. From the point of view of consumer demand, the domestic consumption of red dates and per capita consumption showed a sustained and rapid growth, stage change characteristics; jujube export market concentrated in the Chinese gathering area, the export volume decreased.(2) The price fluctuation analysis of 5 main red dates. One is jujube production prices showed a rising trend of fluctuations, and has remarkable stage characteristics.Compared with other dry fruit, jujube price volatility is relatively small. The second is from the long-term market price fluctuations, jujube prices decline significantly, dried jujube more than the price of a downward trend, fresh jujube prices showed an upward trend; looking from the short-term market price fluctuations, seasonalcharacteristics of jujube price fluctuations obviously, showing high in spring and winter and low in summer and autumn of fluctuations in the situation. Jujube price fluctuation cycle performance can not be repeated and non symmetry, and the volatility, the jujube prices experienced two complete cycle fluctuations, the price of Jun jujube, jujube and jujube experienced three complete cycle fluctuations.(3) The influencing factors of the price formation and fluctuation of Chinese jujube. From the point of view of the production, factors that affect the fluctuations in prices of red dates, including production cost, growers price expectations, planting scale, farmer own quality, natural disaster, agricultural science and technology progress etc.; from the perspective of demand, including consumer purchasing power,price level and replacement goods prices, consumption habits and consumption patterns, population quantity and structure, demand for processing, seasonal factors and holiday factor etc. factors. From the circulation factor, the circulation cost rises,the circulation links many, also includes each circulation link main body behavior, the new distribution channel- the electronic transaction market to the red jujube price influence. In addition, the government policy support, macroeconomic situation,speculation is also a certain degree of impact on the price of red dates.(4) The empirical analysis of the price formation mechanism of jujube. From the point of view of production factors, the production of red jujube contribution to the formation of a larger, reaching 20.4%, the contribution of the production cost is small,only 5.4%. From the demand factors, the price level of the impact of the market price of red dates is generally smaller, compared to the extent of the impact of the price level of the dry date is slightly higher than the fresh jujube. Consumer purchasing power of the market price fluctuations in the contribution of the market is relatively high, the contribution of fresh jujube is higher, the highest reached 31%; the contribution of the dried jujube is relatively low, the basic are below 20%. Circulation factors from the point of view, in long-term conduction effect, jujube in electronic trading price to the spot price of conduction exist lag period and there is some resistance, smooth transmission is not high; in the short-term effect of conduction,jujube spot price of price conduction path smooth, but red jujube in electronic tradingprice of spot prices conduction is not smooth, there one period lagged. From the point of view of the price conductivity, the spot price of red dates has obvious volatility in the price of electronic trading, there is a situation of the coexistence of the contraction of the transmission and the expansion of the transmission.(5) The risk assessment of the price fluctuation of Chinese jujube. Method of jujube price volatility risk is evaluated through the non parametric kernel density estimation, first dates price price risk is higher than the price risk; secondly fresh jujube price risk was significantly higher than that in dried jujube; the third is the jujube price risk probability distribution does not obey the traditional empirical distribution.(6) To promote the smooth development of the price policy recommendations.Advise production organization such as the implementation of the regional comparative advantage strategy, strengthen the popularization and application of science and technology, the implementation of the strategy, the development of red dates encouraging modernintensive from supply management; guide from the aspects of the need to increase market transparency and developing competitive market system and so on; from the aspects of improving traffic flow management and storage facilities, standardize circulation market, red dates middlemen reduce circulation costs,and red dates to cultivate effective market intermediary organization construction, put forward a sound proposal; market information publishing platform, improve product guide price of red dates red dates electronic trading market related laws and regulations and market supervision measures, the establishment of red dates prices early warning mechanism and anti cyclical price adjustment fund system and other aspects of recommendations from the price risk early warning.