| Economics structuralism pointed out that equilibrium economic structure was a necessary condition for national economy to maintain health, sustained, and stable development. Under Opening-up conditions, investment, consumption and net export are the drives to stimulate economic growth. Since1978-2010, investment, consumption and net export stimulate China’s economic growth rate at15.2%. However, for growth in consumption demand is lagging behind the growth in investment demand and net export demand, it is undeniable that China’s economic growth had strong investment-export dependency. Correspondingly, the consumption ratio had descended constantly, and the investment ratio and the net export ratio had ascended constantly. Moreover, Compared with demand structure of the Chenery’s conclusion and other nations’ experience, China’s demand structure had been characterized by high investment ratio, high net export ratio, and low consumption ratio. The evolution of China’s demand structure had created strong constraint to long-term steady economic growth. The condition of evolution had drawn attention of academy and governments greatly, and this is precisely the original intention of this paper.Strictly speaking, there is no generally accepted economic theory to interpret the formation and the evolution of demand structure. Thus, many scholars who judge the demand structure are based on the results about the relatively level of investment rates, consumption rates and net export rate. But because of the very different levels of income, resources endowment, economic system, industrial structure, spending habits and economic policy, it is impossible to meet the same standards of demand structure among different countries. So, it was of no remarkable significance to judge the evolution demand structure by means of the simple comparison.Based on the above, the several main issues in the paper are:(1) What’s general laws of the demand structure evolution?(2)How to build the theoretical model to interpret the formation and evolution of demand structure?(3) What kinds of features to the evolution of China’s demand structure had experienced form reform? And the next change trend?(4) What’s the main factors to influence the evolution of China’s demand structure?(5) What’s the characteristic of the economic development under the evolution of China’s demand structure?(6) Under the ground of realizing the demand structure change to transform the pattern of economic growth, how to carry adjustment to China’s demand structure?The paper uses statistical description, theoretical analysis, mathematical modeling and econometric methods, by the index of consumption ratio, investment ratio, net export ratio, and ratio of consumption to investment and ratio of final demand to investment to analyze the evolution of demand structure. Specifically, the major results of this paper are as follows:Firstly, based on the multi-national experience, the paper summarizes the general laws of demand structure evolution and the relationship between the demand structure evolution and the economic growth rate. The conclusion demonstrates that there are different levels of demand structure in different countries. That is, the so-called standard demand structure does not exist. But, with the development of the living standard in industrialization, the demand structure evolutes and the relationship between the demand structure evolution and the economic growth rate has the general laws. That is, consumption ratio, ratio of consumption to investment, and ratio of final demand to investment all display from descend to ascend, just as of the "U-shaped" curve, investment ratio and net export ratio all display from ascend to descend, just as of the invert "U-shaped" curve. The raising economic growth rate accompany with descending of consumption ratio, the ratio of consumption to investment, and the ratio of final demand to investment, and with ascending of investment ratio and net export ratio.Secondly, considering that there are no generally accepted economic theories to interpret the formation and evolution of demand structure, based on the properties between consumption and investment and neoclassical growth theory, the paper builds the mathematical model to interpret the general laws of demand structure evolution. The conclusion revels that consumption ratio, investment ratio, ratio of consumption to investment, and ratio of final demand to investment are stable, and mainly due to subjective discount rate, relative risk aversion coefficient, capital-output elasticity, technological progress rate, depreciation rate, and labor growth rate. Based on the above theoretical model, the paper gets that whether to deviate from the equilibrium growth path as the basis to judge the demand structure evolution whether imbalance. And correspondingly provides two methods to judge the evolution of the structure of demand whether equilibrium or not:One is to design econometric model to judge the demand structure evolution, and the other is to use numerical simulation to judge the demand structure evolution. This is the theoretical significance in this paper.Thirdly, the paper analyses the evolution of China’s demand structure and the relationship between the demand structure evolution and the economic growth rate. Based on the conclusion from the empirical analysis on the development of multi-country and theoretical model, the evolution of China’s demand structure shows that, China is now in the economic development of the middle stage of industrialization, so the evolution of consumption rate is in the left part of the U-shaped curve, the evolution of investment rate and the net export rate are in the left part of the inverted U-shaped curve, and the ratio of consumption to investment and the ratio of final demand to investment are in the left part of the U-shaped curve. With China’s industrialization process moves forward to the post-industrial stage, the evolution of consumption rate, investment rate, net export rate, ratio of consumption to investment, and ratio of final demand to investment will all reach curve inflection point. Compared with other countries, the evolution of China’s demand structure shows the features of low ratio of consumption to investment (that is, low consumption rate and high investment rate). The main reason is that China has a higher capital-output elasticity and lower subjective discount rate. The evolution of China’s demand structure has strong growth effect, but under the constraints of the evolution of this demand structure, the macroeconomic performance in China shows a series of questions which are unusual fluctuations in the price level, excess capacity, employment effects decline and non-equilibrium of international payments, which affects the economy long-term steady growth.Fourthly, China’s demand structural optimizations focus and optimize path. According to the basic features of China’s demand structural evolution, the non-equilibrium evolution is closely related to the stage of economic development, mainly to according to slow growth rate of consumption demand, and especially according to the slower growth of consumption of rural residents. Thus, the focus of China’s structural demand for optimization is to increase consumption demand,, particularly to improve rural residents’ consumption demand, proper control and optimize the investment demand and optimization of net export demand. At the same time, the use of ratio of consumption to investment and ratio of final demand to investment on econometric analysis shows that the income levels, the inequality degree of income distribution, social security level, the process of industrialization, the degree of openness, and the process of urbanization all have the varying impact on the China’s demand structure evolution. Therefore, the optimal path of China’s structural demand for adjustment should include:improving the inequality of income distribution, further improving the social security system and establishing the sustainable social security system, according to the economic general laws to promote the new industrialization road and advancing urbanization and promoting rural urbanization. This is practical significance and policy recommendation in this paper.
|
PDF Full Text Request