Study On Energy Consumption And GHG Emissions Of Agriculture In China

The limited supply of traditional fossil fuels and the associated consumption limitations needed for dealing with global climate change have considerably restricted economic development in recent years. The Chinese government took up a series of policy measures to achieve the obligatory energy reduction target in the Twelfth Five-Year Plan and the emission reduction commitment made on UN Climate Change Conference in2009. It is the present study’s concern whether the agricultural sector can restrain the rapid growth of energy consumption without negatively affecting economic development.SEC A model (Simulation and Analysis Model of Energy Consumption for Agriculture) is designed to identify the factors influencing energy consumption of agriculture and simulate the energy flows between the seven subsectors of agricultural sectors in China from1996to2010. The present study investigates the energy efficiencies and hierarchies of primary energy, energy end-use and work production in agricultural sector of China. Based on agroecology theory, the relationships research of generalized energy input-output in agriculture is given to set up the function of biological power substitution and the function of agricultural economic output. Then GEMA model (Greenhouse Gas Emissions Accounting Model for Agriculture) is developed to account for the greenhouse gas emissions from fossil energy activity and production process of agriculture, including CO2, CH4and N2O.FEFA model (Four-E Forecasting Model for Agriculture), an energy consumption and GHG emissions forecasting model based on4E perspective is developed based on these researches.4E refers to the initial of four keywords which are Energy, Economy, Environment and Efficiency. Three scenarios are given to predict the most probable value, maximum value and minimum value of agricultural energy consumption, GHG emissions, added value and related efficiency index for the period of2011-2030. Based on the baseline scenario, policy sensitivity analysis (population policy, farmland policy, energy industry policy and etc.) and feasible technology analysis are done. Related policy recommendations and energy technology alternatives are given.