Modeling And Reliability Analysis Of Flood Controlling Project Systems

The reliability analysis of the hydro structures under flood load, thinking over the interference among the hydro structure owing to the flood's process diversion, it is supposed to reliability analysis modeling the regional hydro structures as a large system. Thinking over the flood's provincial characteristics and the interference between individual parameters and the system function, the designing of hydro structure's flood control functions is to optimize the system's total risk and erect the individual structure function's optimal design system.The paper connecting the flood's progress erects regional flood control hydro-project systems, considering the pertinence of the hydro structure's reliability and combining with the calamity damage characteristic of fighting floods structures. Aiming at the system's reliability and optimum the hydro structure's risk design, this paper deals with the study as:(1) By analysing the harm of the flood to the flood control hydro structures increasing steadily in recent years, the paper summarizes in detailed the progress of the structural reliability analysis and the indeterminate factors in the flood control system's safety analysis. In the actuality study and achievements of the flood control hydro-project system, the paper summarizes the deficiency and erects regional flood control hydro-project system's functional reliability analysis modeling thinking that is connecting the flood's progress.(2) Summarizing reliability analysis method of the main structures in the flood control hydro-project systems, on the base of uncertainty analysis of the dike structures' structure parameters, the paper constitutes the integer reliability analysis model and the dike risk analysis function that is about flood processes' scheduling capability and thinking over the dike structure's length.(3) Systematically analysing the method on the failure approach of patten recognition of the flood control hydro-project system, combining the social economical efficiency of the flood control system's invalidation losses, the paper provides the concept "flood disaster risk " and constitutes the failure analysis approach of patten recognition system on the base of the flood progress. Combining with the subsystem functions and the failure probabilistic analysis of the hydro structure, the paper discusses the main failure approach of patten recognition and calculus of failure probability, calculates flood control hydro-project's total risk.(4) On the base of the existing flood control multilevel criterion, by establishing the total and multilevel flood condition's reliability analysis model of the hydro - project systems, this paper carries out the risk evaluation for the flood function's reliability of the flood control system; this paper analyses risk of the flood control hydro - project system's total flood control reliability in Hanjiang's middle-lower reaches of drainage area, combining with thesouth-to-north Water transfer project's midline engineering— expansion of the Danjiangkou dam.(5) Because of the failure mode enumeration's complexity, trying to use the point of the flood's energy, the paper simulates the hydro structure system's failure in the flood progress's effect. This paper advances the "Flood Disaster Entropy" concept by making an analogy analysis between the hydro structure system's failure and the Second Thermodynamics' maximum entropy. By the "Flood Disaster Entropy", simulating the connection between the flood control capacity's reliability of the hydro structure system and the regional flood's energy and the change of the flood failure risk distributing transfer. That can provide the rationale for the function risk optimal designing of the system's flood control project's structure.(6) On the base of constituting "Flood Disaster Entropy" theory, thinking over the flood control reservoir's structure, the paper advances the function and risk optimal design model of reservoir dams. By the example we can find the result available.