Fuzzy Risk Assessent Method Of Large-scale Activities And Design Of Corresponding Early Warning System

Along with the rising of quantity, scale and degree of internationalization of Large-scale activities in recent years, 62% of these activities have security problems, according to the safety inspection of Ministry of Public Security. Due to the crowded site and complex situation, there are potential security risks and negligence in Safety Management, leading to catastrophic accidents and bringing irreparable damage or death. It is timely, important and meaningful to study assessment and early warning systems of Large-scale activities. This research derives from the national Eleventh Five-year project Study on the Risk Warning Technology for Social Security. In the research, an early warning system is given based on assessment of risk factors, and should be able to effectively curb the high trend of the occurrence of catastrophic incidents.This research introduces the background, significance, research method and technological design of the research. It focuses on the current status of research home and abroad on the theory and practice of Large-scale activities, their risk assessment and early warning. The typical catastrophic accidents are analyzed based on rule, principle, optimization, and operation mechanism analysis methodology. The impact of Large-scale activities risk factors are divided into four groups: activity factors, human factors, material factors and environmental factors. A new approach based on Fuzzy Analytical Network Hierarchical for establishment of an analytical risk assessment model to evaluate the risk index is proposed, for Large-scale activities are characterized by the complex giant system, Large number of risk factors and inter-dependence among factors. Based on fuzzy Analytical Network Hierarchical Processing method, some monitoring indicators of early warning system are given and calculated with analysis. A set of classifying system is established based on the research of monitoring and initiating process. An early warning system is designed according to the subject, area, function modules, content of Large-scale activity. Besides, the composition of the early warning system is given for further research on the early warning strategy. Three cases were selected to do empirical research in order to verify the validity and feasibility of the indicator system. Finally, the dissertation summarizes the findings of the research and poses some areas for further improvement and exploration.