Study On Risk Assessment Theory And Standardization Method Of Assembly Occupancies

Study on risk assessment and standardization method of assembly occupancies is an important foundation for risk management of assembly occupancies that aim to keep serious calamities within limits. The main target of this dissertation was to establish a scientific and feasible system for risk assessment and standardized classification on assembly occupancies. On the basis of research on the macroscopical background and microcosmic characteristics of assembly occupancies, it applied diversified study methods such as sociology, engineering, management, economics and other disciplines to describe the risk in assembly occupancies. According to characteristics of assembly occupancies, an indictor system for risk assessment was founded and the quantitative criteria for each indicator have been put forward.The appearance and development of assembly occupancies are related with social development and progress, especially with the promotion of urbanization and modernization. Characteristics of modernity include industrialization in economic, democratization in political, urbanization in society, secularism in culture, buresucracy in organization and rationalism in conception. These characteristics resulted in that the degree of denseness would continue to increase and assembly occupancies would increase both on the number and in the scale along with the process of modernization. From the microscopic point of view, the main risk source in assembly occupancies is the characteristics of flow. By analyzing the movement of persons and mechanism of the crowded, the conditions and control measures were pointed.The theory basis of risk assessment is how to understand risks. There were different definition and analysis on risks from different angles. Risks of assembly occupancies have source complicacy, intrinsical dualism, effect ponderance, limited calculability and spatio-temporal characteristics. Risk assessment should study and evaluate risk on the position of risk adversary and risk acceptor. The basic model of risk assessment included in risk identification, threat assessment, assets evaluation, vulnerability analysis and damage assessment.According to research on the macroscopical background and microcosmic characteristics of assembly occupancies, the basic model of risk assessment was applied on the analysis and evaluation of assembly occupancies. An indicator system has been founded including in 4 first class indicators, 17 secondary indicators, 32 third class indicators, 27 forth class indicators and 14 fifth class indicators. The quantitative criteria for each indicator were put forward, and standardization classification of risk was carried out. The result of risk assessment was received by the AHP and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation.In order to verify the available of the indicator system and assessment criteria, three representatives including in a large shopping centre, kindergartens and Olympic venues were selected as empirical research. The results of the assessment were satisfying.