GDP-Based Research On Allocation Of Urban Disaster Reduction Resources

It is indicated from disaster reduction practice that resources allocation plays great significance of implementing rescues and reconstruction successfully after earthquake in cities. On the basis of the experience of Tangshan Earthquake, the theory, method, decision-making and analysis of resources allocation of earthquake resistance and disaster reduction in cities are dealt with in this dissertation by using some methods such as input-output, neural network, statistical analysis, seismic risk analysis and mathematical analysis method and so on.The main research contents, achievements and innovations in this dissertation are as follows:1. The relation between the city GDP and the resources losses caused by the natural disaster are anlyzed. It is revealed that if the higher is the city GOP, the higher the management of the city disaster should be strengthened and the higher the rationality of allocating the earthquake resistance and disaster reduction resources should be increased. The analysis of the city GDP's earthquake vulnerability is carried out by studying on Tangshan industrial structure. This dissertation has established three-layer BP neural network estimation model for the city labor power resources losses caused by the earthquake and has discussed the primary factor to influencing the loss of the labor force by taking 20 serious earthquake disasters as the sample. It is revealed that the key factors which decrease the loss of labor force are to reduce the density of the population and to improve the aseismatic performance of the civil constructions.2. By the means of the earthquake risk analysis, this dissertation has studied the relation between the city GDP and the resources losses caused by the earthquake. According to the change of GDP caused by Tangshan Earthquake, three kinds of the city GDP's reduction models are put forward after earthquake. Synchronously, the intersection mathematical model of the development curve is also established and resolved. The result of the analysis has practical value to distribute the earthquake resistance and disaster reduction resources reasonably. The dissertation has confirmed that the relation between the city GDP and the earthquake intensity, and has indicated the influence of the earthquake intensity to the city GDP.3. Based on the resource theory, the dissertation defines the earthquakeprevention and disaster reduction resources. The characteristics, functions and allocation principles of all kinds of the earthquake prevention and disaster reduction resources are analyzed by taking allocation principles of the resources for recovery and reconstruction in Tangshan Earthquake as practical base. And it also puts forward the important experience which is gained by summarizing the allocation of the earthquake prevention and disaster reduction resources in Tangshan Earthquake.4. Using the real world data of two cities (Tangshan city and Qin Huangdao city), 14 counties, 472 towns and 7,772 natural villages when the Tangshan Earthquake occurred, the dissertation not only analyzes the losses of the main resources, but also plots the region distribution relationship between the earthquake casualty ratio and the building collapse ratio. It summarizes the methods and experiences of the organization, commitment, and the allocation of disaster reduction resources in Tangshan Earthquake. Based on the aforementioned research, the dissertation presents the principal approach to allocating resources. Moreover, aiming at the Fengnan district (one district of Tangshan city), some proposals of how to reasonably distribute the earthquake resistance and disaster reduction resources and how to improve the industrial distribution are made by analyzing the seismic fracture zone in Fengnan, the seismic disaster in Tangshan Earthquake, geological distribution of the city and the GDP of the villages and towns in recent years. The result has innovative and general practical significance.5. This dissertation analyzes the great significance of fortifying criterion playing on the city earthquake resistance, and the relation with the GDP. The basic principle and decisive analysis method of allocating the earthquake resistance and disaster reduction resources are presented. And analysis of the optimum input for the earthquake prevention and disaster reduction resources of the civil building in Tangshan city is made by using the social economic quota, project cost, earthquake destructive probability of the civil building and the losses estimation. It puts forwards decisive analysis method to allocating the earthquake resistance and disaster reduction resources.The results of this research come from practices but higher than practices. It provides theories, methods and experience for the reasonable allocation of the earthquake resistance and disaster reduction resources in cities.