| El Nino phenomenon is the main factor that affects global climate abnormity and geology disaster frequent occurrences. According to the statistics of El Nino happened during 1997 –1998 resulted in direct economic damage of billions of dollars. Since the 70's widespread summer drought, happened in the northern China in 1997, and the special-grade flood occurred in 1998, and the geology disaster formed at the same time, caused great less to national economy. So it is quite necessary to study its occurrence regulations and predictable methods. El Nino possesses many features such as the obvious territories, great energy variation, frequent movement, with regulations but without strict period. At present, there are many opinions on the formation of El Nino. According to the relevant research both domestic and abroad, there are mainly four kinds of formation, such as atmosphere circumfluence, abnormity ocean circumfluence abnormity, and terrestrial heat releasing abnormity and chronometer factors variation. However, all the existing theories cannot accord with the features of El Nino. Till now, people cannot exactly predict it. This shows that El Nino formed with many factors. People's observation and analysis are incomplete. So the increasing evidences have verified the comprehensive factors formations. At present, people mainly predict El Nino according to the globe's slowing rotation. But it is only a phenomenon. The essential is that the earth's crust flat rate increases, volume decreases, all there leading to releasing heat and gases. Sometimes, obvious rotation slowing down doesn't occur the ocean temperature abnormity. One reason is that the multi-factors of the earth rotation slowing down (such as atmosphere differential rotation). Another reason is the mantle releasing liquid and gases, and the earth surface formation. The mantle releasing gases only occurs on the formation belt when the maximum shape changes occur. The accurate predictable methods can be found only by the comprehensive research of El Nino chronometer and geology factors. This paper mainly covers: 1. Solar and lunar tidal force produce the globe shape change. It changes the earth's crust flat rate and volume. It is the main chronometer force, which adjusts volcano eruption. During 1997-1998 El Nino, in the mid and east part of tropical Pacific Ocean, the surface temperature increase from –0.3°C in Feb to 1°C at the end of April. It forms El Nino within 2 months. From April and the following 4 month, the surface temperature of the ocean monthly average increase 0.7°C. From July 1997 to Feb 1998, the ocean temperature increased is above 2.5°C, lasting for 8 months. During the first ten days, in Dec 1997, the temperature of sea water increased 4°C. it is the strongest El Nino in the record. Twice solar eclipses occurred on Mar 9 and Sept 1 in 1997. Twice lunar eclipses occurred on Mar 24 and Sept.17. Those are near the two perigees. The solar and lunar tidal forces made the earth's crust flat rate biggest, resulted in the mantle liquid abnormal breaking forth. By analyzing the data, this paper concludes that El Nino, La Nina are the forced vibration caused by the solar eclipse. From its effective potential, explain the solar eclipse change the atmosphere circulation, than forms El Nino, La Nina. By comparing the El Nino and Solar eclipse in this century. There exists consequence between solar eclipse happened in high latitude (include polar regions) and El Nino years. By comparing the data of sea ice around the South Pole continent, temperature in Pacific Ocean, temperature in the South Pole continent, El Nino and La Nina events, a determined and egregious causality between El Nino phenomena and the sea ices in Drake Channel is recognized. The velocity in Pacific circumfluence becoming slower is caused by sea ice decrease around the South Pole continent and sea ice in Drake Channel play an important role. So, this paper proposes the opinion of El Nino's threefunctions of adjusting and controlling. The validity and veracity of solar eclipse-El Nino coefficients are clear in El Nino events prediction. Biennial oscillation of the temperature in Pacific Ocean caused the 12 –24 months difference of phase between solar eclipse and El Nino. So, in this paper, solar eclipse has decisive influence of El Nino, and it is also a scientific base to predict El Nino. 2. This paper adopts the re-analysis data of American National Climate and Environment Predict Center, studies the development of El Nino and La Nina. The result provides the typical occurrence of these two phenomena. The relativity was found between the temperature changes of the east Pacific Ocean at the equator and South Pacific. In El Nino (La Nina) near the equator, when the temperature in east Pacific Ocean is a little high (low), so is the temperature in the Southern sea. This paper firstly calculates the temperature matrix-changes at the equator of east Pacific Ocean. During 38 years, El Nino and La Nina's occurrence time and strength, the author selects the most obvious years, and then analysis and compares the characteristics of the two events'evolvement. From these statistics, analyzes the temperature changes and its relativity among the east Pacific Ocean, the west and the south of Pacific Ocean. 3. This paper discusses the formation of El Nino environmental factors and its inducing factors. In the author's opinion, the North Pole is semi-closing to the North Pacific Ocean and the South Pole is open to the South Pacific Ocean, which is the tectonic basis for El Nino. Strong tides makes the thermal energy flow from North Pacific Ocean to South Pacific Ocean. The alterative alignment of the earth, the moon, the sun and planets give rise to the gradual changing in the strength of tides which has the same timescale as the global climate cycle. The strong tides result in the increasing of vertical and horizontal mixing of water in the ocean, which draws the warm Pacific water form north/west to the south/east, where it warms the atmosphere above and makes El Nino occur in the whole world. This is the reason why strong tides are concerned with El Nino event.4. This paper puts forward that in the earth formation system, climate and formation activities are affected each other. The climate change causes the large-scale matter movement on the surface of the earth. It is one of the dynamical forces, which has been neglected for a long time. The formation movement changed the distribution of the continent and the seas. It can also cause the global climate change violently. Drake Channel and the global climate cold and warm switch function round the South Pole sea ice, is the typical case. Tide makes the floor of east and west Pacific Ocean rise and full 6o cm in the opposite direction. Before and after El Nino, the surface of east and west Pacific falls 40cm in the opposite direction. The earth proportional action makes the ocean floor rise and fall 20cm or 13cm in the opposite direction. Therefore, the teeterboard movement of the east and west ocean floor is the corresponding reason of El Nino and earthquake volcano movement. This is the Pacific Ocean floor teeterboard phenomenon. 5. In this paper's research, the author thinks that the centralized large-scale earthquake occurred during the volcano eruption period is not a unique phenomena in 1991. Elchichong volcano erupted twice on Mar 25 and April 4 in Mexico 1982. From this time to the end of the year, 14 times level-7 and above earthquake alternatively occurred in the east and west Pacific Ocean earthquake belts. Among these, 7 times occurred within one month from May 31 to June 30. In May 1982, the most violent El Nino happened in the 20 century. Before and after this, the height of the surface in the east and west Pacific Ocean changed in the opposite direction resulted in the earth and water proportion. It is the stimulating factor of earthquake. So, within one year before and after El Nino, there must be intensified earthquake. From 1904 to 1980, with 1934 exception, the regulation of earthquake activities is the important bases to predict El Nino. 6. This paper analysis the date of the surface temperature of Pacific Ocean, the conditions of solar and lunar eclipses, and data of above level-7 global earthquake. The math mode is also discussed based on B-p web to predict El Nino. According to 1987-2000, the times of yearly global above level-7 earthquake,...
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