| BackgroundWith the rapid development of the social economy and the change in people’s living environment and lifestyle,cancer has become a disease that seriously endangers the health of the population.According to the statistics of national cancer and death causes,there were 4.06 million new cases of cancer and 2.41 million deaths occurred in China in 2016,and malignant tumors have become the top cause of death for Chinese.The disease burden of cancer is becoming more and more serious,and getting comprehensive and accurate cancer information is vital for the construction of a cancer prevention and control network.ObjectiveBased on the tumor-related information from the homepage of inpatient medical records in Sichuan Province from 2015 to 2020,the incidence of malignant tumors and time trend were analyzed;A mathematical model was used to predict the incidence of cancer in Sichuan Province from 2021 to 2025;To provide scientific reference for the formulation of cancer prevention and control.MethodData is statistically analyzed by EXCEL,SPSS,and Joinpoint Regression Program.A descriptive analysis of cancer incidence in Sichuan Province from 2015 to 2020 was conducted;The log-linear model was used to analyze the time trend of malignant tumor incidence in Sichuan Province from 2015 to 2020;The fitting linear regression model was used to analyze the average age of cancer in Sichuan Province from 2015 to 2020.The prediction model was established based on the incidence of malignant tumors in each dimension from 2015 to 2020 by using the grey system prediction model theory.Then the relative error test method was adopted to fit and compare the predicted data with the actual results to test the accuracy of the predicted data.Results1.The population of Sichuan Province decreased from 91,305,400 in 2015 to90,815,900 in 2020.The proportion of people aged 60 and above in the total population increased from 18.19%to 20.28%.2.There were 276,468 new cases of malignant tumors in Sichuan Province in 2020,with incidence of 304.76/10~5 and age-standardized incidence by Chinese standard population(ASIRC)of the Plain Economic Zone was 347.10/10~5.The age-specific incidence of malignant tumors showed a low level-slowly rising-rapid rise-decline trend with age.Lung cancer,colorectal cancer,liver cancer,esophageal cancer,and gastric cancer are the Top5 types of malignant tumors in Sichuan Province.3.The overall incidence,gender,and urban and rural incidence of malignant tumors in Sichuan Province increased from 2015 to 2020,and the average annual percentage change was 7.514%,6.751%,8.611%,4.713%,and 6.838%,respectively.The incidence of cancer in the Chengdu Plain Economic Zone and northwest Sichuan Ecological Economic zone showed an obvious upward trend,and the AAPC values were 7.549%and 9.668%,respectively,the difference was statistical significance.The incidence of lung cancer,colorectal cancer,breast cancer,cervical cancer,and prostate cancer showed an obvious upward trend from 2015 to 2020.4.The average age of malignant tumor onset in Sichuan Province in 2020 is 63.86 years old.The average age of malignant tumor onset in males is higher than that in females,and that in urban areas is higher than that in rural areas.The mean age for the onset of malignant tumors increased from 2015 to 2020(β=0.37,P=0.003).In 2020,the age group with the largest proportion of standardized age groups is 60-year-olds(15.18%).The incidence of 35-and 85+age groups increased significantly from 2015 to 2020,and the AAPC values were 8.147%(P<0.05),and 8.950%(P<0.05).5.After fitting the prediction model,the incidence of malignant tumors in Sichuan Province in 2025 was 362.90/105,385.79/105 in males and 341.47/10~5 in females,and422.69/105 in Chengdu Plain Economic Zone(453.28/10~5 in males and 394.55/10~5in females).The incidence of lung cancer was 97.96/10~5,108.29/10~5 for males,and92.64/10~5 for females.Conclusions and suggestions1.The incidence of malignant tumors in Sichuan Province is in a high epidemic state,and the incidence is rising with a time-changing trend.The disease burden is serious and the prevention and control situation is grim.The incidence of cancer is higher in males than in females,and the incidence after 40 years of age gradually increases with the increase of age.Therefore,males and middle-aged and elderly people should be taken as the key groups of primary and secondary prevention in cancer prevention and control,and the knowledge of cancer prevention and treatment and early screening,early diagnosis,and early treatment should be actively carried out,which obtain better prevention and control effects.2.There are differences in the incidence trend for different malignant tumors.Lungcancer,digestive system tumor,breast cancer,cervical cancer,and prostate cancer are the predominant types of cancer in Sichuan Province.Attention should be paid to the rising trend of lung cancer,colorectal cancer,female breast cancer,cervical cancer,and prostate cancer,and prevention,control,and screening should be strengthened.3.The average age for the onset of malignant tumors in Sichuan Province showed an increasing time trend.After adjusting the population structure,the age for onset of malignant tumors decreased significantly without significant trend change.The proportion of age-standardized malignant tumor morbidity was mainly concentrated in the age group of 50-75 years.4.Cancer prevention and control is a social system project,which requires the participation of the government,society,families,and individuals.The government should make overall plans,actively formulate and improve policies,strategies,and measures for cancer prevention and control,serve as behavioral guidelines for lower-level organizations,and strengthen health education and health promotion based on community and digital media.Secondly,cancer screening should be actively carried out,simple and efficient detection means should be adopted,an appropriate screening population should be selected,a data collection and analysis platform should be developed relying on information technology,and data mining should be made full use of existing data to serve the main body of cancer prevention and control. |
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