| Objective: To analyze the epidemic status of major digestive tract malignant tumors in Shenyang from 2011 to 2020,describe its epidemic characteristics,analyze the epidemic trend of incidence and death of digestive tract malignant tumors in Shenyang from 2011 to 2020,and predict the incidence and death of digestive tract malignant tumors in Shenyang in the next five years,so as to provide more intuitive theoretical and data support for the comprehensive prevention and control of digestive tract malignant tumors in Shenyang in the future.To further develop intervention measures and achieve the goal of "Healthy China 2030".Methods: 1.Obtain the morbidity,mortality and population data of the research subjects,calculate the gender and age incidence rate(mortality),standardized incidence rate(mortality)and other indicators,and analyze the prevalence of malignant tumors in the digestive tract in Shenyang from 2011 to 2020;The annual percentage change(APC)and average annual percentage change(AAPC)were used to analyze the change trend of incidence rate and mortality;The population prediction software PADIS-IN was used to predict the population composition of Wucheng District of Shenyang City from 2021-2025,and the data from 2011-2020 were fitted with the Nordpred model to predict the incidence and death of digestive tract malignant tumors in the region from2021-2025,and the results were verified with the Bayesian APC model.Results: 1.From 2011 to 2020,there were 52208 cases of gastrointestinal malignant tumors in Shenyang,including 33134 males and 19074 females.The incidence rate is 137.76/100000,the bid winning rate is 64.37/100000,and the world standard rate is 64.15/100000.The male incidence rate is 178.79/100000,and the bid winning rate is 84.2/100000 and 88.40/100000 respectively.The female incidence rate is 98.49/100000,the bid winning rate and the world standard rate are 45.64/100000 and42.30/100000 respectively.Male mortality and standardized mortality are higher than female mortality.The main types of digestive tract malignant tumors in Shenyang are colorectal cancer(21841),liver cancer(9804),gastric cancer(9746),pancreatic cancer(4570),and esophageal cancer(2910).The incidence rate is 57.63/100000,25.87/100000,25.72/100000,12.06/100000,and 8.84/100000,respectively.The incidence rate of the world standard is 26.99/100000,12.51/100000,11.83/100000,5.48/100000,and4.07/100000.There were 34901 deaths,including 22482 males and 12422 females.The death rate is 92.10 per 100000,the bid winning rate is 42.05 per 100000,and the world standard rate is 41.57 per 100000.The male incidence rate is 121.31/100000,and the bid winning rate is 55.88/100000 and 58.69/100000 respectively.The female incidence rate was 64.14/100000,and the bid winning rate and the world standard rate were28.91/100000 and 26.26/100000 respectively.The standardized mortality rates were 82/100 thousand and 71/100 thousand.The main types of digestive tract malignant tumors in Shenyang are colorectal cancer(10917),liver cancer(8259),gastric cancer(6652),pancreatic cancer(4062),and esophageal cancer(2790).The mortality rates are respectively 28.81/100000,21.79/100000,17.55/100000,10.72/100000,and 7.36/100000.The world standard mortality rates are respectively 12.67/100000,10.36/100000,7.81/100000,4.81/100000,and 3.34/100000.2.The incidence rate and death rate of digestive tract malignant tumors are increasing with age,and have increased rapidly since the age of 40.The incidence and death cases are mainly concentrated in the 75-80 age group.3.The results of time trend analysis: the 10-year incidence rate and standardized incidence rate of gastrointestinal malignant tumors showed an upward trend,but the increase in standardized incidence rate was all attributed to men;Different tumors have different trends.Among them,the incidence rate and standardized incidence rate of colorectal cancer and pancreatic cancer are on the rise,the incidence rate of gastric cancer and liver cancer is on the rise,but the standardized incidence rate has no change trend,and the incidence rate and standardized incidence rate of esophageal cancer have no obvious change trend.The 10-year mortality rate and standardized mortality rate showed an upward trend,but the increase of standardized mortality rate was all attributed to men;Different tumors have different trends.The mortality rate and standardized mortality rate of gastric cancer,colorectal cancer,liver cancer,pancreatic cancer are all increasing,but the increase of standardized mortality rate of gastric cancer and liver cancer is only attributed to men.The incidence rate of esophageal cancer shows an upward trend,and the standardized mortality rate has no change trend.The increase in the incidence rate of esophageal cancer is all attributed to men.4.Prediction results of incidence and death of digestive tract malignant tumors in Shenyang from 2021-2025: Bayesian BAPC modeling verification shows that the fitting effect is good,which can be used to predict the incidence rate and mortality of digestive tract malignant tumors from 2021-2025.The prediction results show that the incidence rate and standardized incidence rate of malignant tumors of digestive tract will decline in the next five years,but the number of female cases will continue to rise,reaching 2264 cases in 2025,an increase of 2.03% compared with 2219 cases in 2020.Among them,the incidence rate and standardized incidence rate of colorectal cancer and pancreatic cancer are on the rise,and the incidence will increase significantly.It is estimated that by 2025,the incidence of colorectal cancer will be 3455,an increase of 28.91%compared with 2680 in 2020,and the incidence of pancreatic cancer will reach 826,an increase of 34.31% compared with 615 in 2020.The standardized incidence rate of esophageal cancer and liver cancer is in a downward trend,and the incidence of liver cancer is expected to be 768 in 2025,24.48% less than 1017 in 2020.In the next five years,the mortality rate of digestive tract malignant tumors will continue to rise,and the standardized mortality rate will be stable.By 2025,the mortality rate will reach 121.96/100000.The number of deaths will increase from 4338 in 2020 to 4871 in 2025,with an increase of 12.29%.The mortality rate and standardized mortality rate of colorectal cancer and pancreatic cancer are on the rise,and the number of deaths will increase significantly.It is estimated that the number of deaths from colorectal cancer will reach 1780 by 2025,an increase of 23.87% from1437 in 2020.The number of deaths from pancreatic cancer reached 713,an increase of29.87% compared with 549 in 2020.The mortality rates of esophageal cancer,gastric cancer and liver cancer all fluctuated slightly,with a slight upward trend.The standardized mortality rates all decreased slightly,and the number of deaths still increased slightly.Conclusion: From 2011 to 2020,the incidence rate and mortality of digestive tract malignant tumors in Shenyang are at a high level.The incidence rate and mortality of malignant tumors of the digestive tract in men are higher than those in women.The incidence rate and mortality of digestive tract malignant tumors increase with age.Middle-aged and elderly men are at high risk of gastrointestinal cancer.From 2011 to2020,the incidence rate and mortality rate of digestive tract malignant tumors in Shenyang were on the rise.It is predicted that the standardized incidence rate in the next five years will show a slow downward trend in mortality,but the crude incidence rate and mortality will still maintain an upward trend.The incidence rate and mortality of colorectal cancer and pancreatic cancer continued to rise to a high level in the decade,and it is expected that they will continue to rise in the next five years.Gastrointestinal malignant tumor is and will be one of the diseases that seriously endanger the health of residents in Shenyang.Therefore,it is necessary to strengthen the prevention and control of malignant tumors in the digestive tract,improve the prevalence of cancer screening and the awareness of health knowledge among Shenyang residents,and pay more attention to middle-aged and elderly men,colorectal cancer and pancreatic cancer. |
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