A Research On Forecast Of Blood Collcetion And Supply Capacity In WUHAN City

As the only source of blood,unpaid blood donation plays an important role in ensuring national health and national security.In China,the blood collection volume and blood supply volume can not meet the normal growth demand at present.The phenomenon of tight blood supply and"blood shortage"occurs from time to time,which are the challenges and difficulties faced by unpaid blood donation.Based on the above situation,acccording to the development of medical level and data over the years,reasonably predict the changes of clinical blood use in Wuhan,arrange the development planning and policies of blood center according to the prediction results,formulate effective and reasonable blood recruitment and donation plan,ensure the supply and avoid waste at the same time,which is the research goal of this thesis.This thesis collects the blood collection and supply data of Wuhan from 2016 to2020,describe the current situation of unpaid blood donation and the change trend of blood collection and supply data,makes a linear regression analysis on the influencing factors of blood collection and supply capacity by SPSS,and establishes the influencing factor model of blood collection and supply.At the same time,in order to predicte clinical blood use,ARIMA model was used to fit the time series model ARIMA（0,1,1）（1,1,0）₁₂based on the clinical blood supply data of 48 months,and then the actual clinical blood use from January to December 2020 is compared with the predicted value,test the prediction accuracy of the model.After the accuracy meets the requirements,the monthly clinical blood supply in Wuhan in 2021 is predicted,and then the annual clinical blood supply of medical institutions in Wuhan in 2021 is calculated,judging whether it matches the existing blood collection capacity.On this basis,reasonableplan for free blood donation recruitment and blood collection are given.The research shows that the current blood collection capacity of Wuhan is highly linearly related to the total number of employees,the number of blood donation facilitiesand other factors.Among them,the number of fixed blood donation points and the number of fixed blood donors are the most important factors restricting the bold collection capacity.In addition,the thesis found that in 2020,COVID-19 leads to reduced blood supply in Wuhan,and further increased the gap between blood collection and clinical blood supply.Therefore,it is necessary to do well the emergency support measures for blood,strengthen the construction of emergency blood donation team and blood allocation mechanism,and reduce the adverse effects caused by emergencies.