The Forecast Research Of Aged Care Professionals Supply And Demand In Hangzhou

Objective: Cardinal number of elderly population is big and population aging speed rapidly in Hangzhou. But long-term care providers are insufficient, costly in terms of chronic care, low-quality of long-term care services. Those leaded to big shortage in supply of long-term care services, and it is difficult realize the sustainable development of long-term care services in the further. This thesis mainly solve following problem:①redicating the population age structure from 2015 to 2030 and the elderly population scale who need long-term care also have their potential nursing duration. ②Predicting the size of elderly in various health condition choose home long-term care or institution long-term care and calculate the quantity of elderly care providers.Methods: ①Questionnaire survey: Adopt cluster random sampling method, using self-made questionnaire investigate the health situation, needs of LTC and LTC services purchase intention for urban elderly in Hangzhou. ② Semi-structured interview: Adopt random selection, choosing elderly care providers to know their work content, training, career planning and so on. ③Mathematical statistics:Using PADIS-INT forecast population of the elderly in Hangzhou from 2015 to 2030, and apply the sample from the latest waves of China Health And Retirement Longitudinal Study (2011 and 2013), we investigate the transition of individuals between health statues and their matrices, also estimate the sizes of frail elderly and expected time they spent in LTC status by continuous-time Markov chains. Predicting the size of elderly in various health condition choose home long-term care or institution long-term care according to the data of OECD countries after that calculate the quantity of elderly care providers.Results: ① According the questionnaire survey:the elderly has high prevalence rale of chronic diseases, mild or medium anxiety/ depression phenomenon, the body function decline, low demand for LTC services, just concentrated in community activities and daily care services; 44% elderly will buy LTC services and hope to provide social insurance and entity services. Average monthly income and whether have frail elderly in the home is the influence factors of long-term care services. ② the elderly care providers status:mainly middle-age women who from rural area, low professional skills, short training time, low education and income, high liquidity, no career planning. ③the results of mathematical statistics show that have 2.0152 million elderly population by 2030 in Hangzhou and 0.2127million need LTC services. Among them 137.2thousand person will choose home long-term care and need 4245 professional elderly care workers; 75500 old man will choose institution long-term care and need 23052 professional elderly care providers. For healthy elderly every million people should be equipped with 5-7 elderly care providers and each community allocate 2 general practitioners at least.Conclusions:①So much social factors influence people purchase long-term care services. Average monthly income, whether have frail old man in the home will influence to buy long-term care services. Income has a non-linear bell-shape effect on the demand for LTC services. Very low-income people take out little insurance cover, middle-income people have highest intention to buy long-term care services, the richer don’t want to buy LTC services. People who need take care frail elderly in the home have stronger intention to buy services. ②The demand of long-term care services will keep rise. According to the results, size of elderly population who need LTC services is bigger, especially the disability elderly population grow faster. For elderly care providers, the next 15 years the staff gap will above 100000, especially in professional and high education nursing staff. ③ Endurance for long-term care services is related to health status. The duration time of LTC and health have positive correlated relationship, means as the old man’s health status change from good to bad, the duration of the long-term care services will become longer. The forecast result shows the relationship between need and the age is non-linear. In addition, women have more time spent on LTC, female will become the main purchaser in the future.