Study On The Spatiotemporal Pattern Evolution And Prediction Of Cultivated Land System Resilience

In the new period of rapid construction and development of urban and rural pattern,the cultivated land system is faced with severe internal and external disturbance.Therefore,the concept of resilience is introduced into the cultivated land system to explore the evolution of the spatial-temporal pattern of the past resilience and the future level of the future resilience of the cultivated land system,it is of great significance to study and understand that arable land can maintain its own functional stability when facing uncertain risks,and to provide a basis for improving its resilience according to local conditions,it can provide reference for formulating the future development strategy of cultivated land in Guangxi.On the basis of systematically combing and recognizing the theory of resilience of cultivated land use system and related research,taking 111 counties(districts)in Guangxi as the study area,and based on the index system of resilience of cultivated land use system including "functionality,stability,suitability,redundancy",GIS spatial analysis、 Kernel density estimation、 Theil index and spatial autocorrelation were used to study the resilience level of cultivated land use system in Guangxi and its spatiotemporal pattern evolution characteristics.Then,the influencing factors were explored through the geographical detector model.The prediction of the resilience of cultivated land system was studied,and put forward the optimization measures to promote the sustainable development of the cultivated land system and improve the cultivated land system resilience.The main research conclusions are as follows:(1)From 2005 to 2020,the change trend of the resilience level of cultivated land use system in Guangxi was first decreasing and then increasing,and the general trend was fluctuating and increasing.The spatial distribution pattern was characterized by low northwest and high southeast.The contribution of each dimension to the cultivated land system resilience is different,and the proportion of functionality,suitability and redundancy in the resilience index of cultivated land system is on the rise,it is the main source of improving the cultivated land system resilience in Guangxi,and the proportion of stability is on the decline.From the perspective of spatial gap pattern,the spatial gap of the resilience of cultivated land use system in Guangxi fluctuates to some extent,but the overall trend is increasing,and each region presents a weak multi-level differentiation trend,the regional difference of the resilience of cultivated land use system mainly comes from the regional difference.From the perspective of spatial correlation,the spatial correlation of the resilience of cultivated land use system in Guangxi was prominent,and the degree of spatial aggregation decreased slightly,and has the positive promotion function.(2)The differences of total grain yield,grain crop sown area,average value of agriculture,forestry,animal husbandry and fishery,comprehensive mechanization degree of cultivated land,effective irrigation rate of cultivated land,per capita net income of farmers,annual precipitation,cultivation rate of cultivated land,forest coverage rate and slope were the main reasons for spatial differentiation of cultivated land system resilience in Guangxi.The factors of total grain yield and grain crop sown area had the highest explanatory power,and the effect was significant.As time goes on,it can be found that the impact of the development of People’s livelihood on the resilience of cultivated land use system is more and more obvious than that of natural resources and input factors.(3)In the aspect of dynamic prediction,by predicting the evolution trend of the resilience grade of cultivated land use system in Guangxi in 2025 and 2030,it can be seen that the development trend of the resilience of cultivated land use system in Guangxi is good and the level of the resilience is generally increased,although it is still at the middle level,the lower and lower levels of resilience tend to increase towards higher levels,and the number of county units with higher and higher levels of resilience has increased,it is characterized by stable spatial pattern.In the aspect of spatial development trend prediction,the trend of resilience of cultivated land use system in Guangxi in 2025 is “High in the south and low in the north”,and in 2030,the trend is an inverted “U”.In the east-west direction,the trend of development is "High in the east and low in the west",and its overall trend of change tends to smooth development.The strategies of improving the resilience of cultivated land use system mainly include:optimizing the internal structure of the system,making rational use of external resources;enhancing the ability of resisting disturbance of cultivated land use system and optimizing the response model;combining with the actual situation,according to local conditions to dig out the key points of improving resilience;strengthening the protection of cultivated land,establishing the internal supervision mechanism of cultivated land use system.