Evaluation And Influencing Factors Of Eco-Industry-People’s Livelihood Coupling Coordinated Development In Key State-Owned Forest Regions Of Northeast And Inner Mongolia

In recent years,through the prohibition of commercial cutting of natural forest resources in key state-owned forest areas,remarkable achievements have been made in ecological management,the quality and economic benefits of industrial development have been gradually improved,and social and public services have been constantly improved,but they are also faced with outstanding ecological problems in local forest areas,insufficient conditions for the development of emerging industries and low wages for workers.Many challenges not only hinder the process of transformation from key state-owned forest areas to high-quality development,but also seriously restrict the industrial development,which is the source of material for people’s livelihood,which leads to the imbalance between ecology,industry and people’s livelihood.Therefore,promoting the coordinated development of key state-owned forest areas is an important task for our country to achieve comprehensive,coordinated and sustainable development.Ecological protection,industrial transformation and improvement of people’s livelihood are important aspects of the coordinated development of key state-owned forest areas.The level of coupling coordination among the three affects the overall development situation of key state-owned forest areas.Therefore,the coupling and coordinated development of ecological-industry-livelihood system in key state-owned forest areas is analyzed in order to realize the coordinated development of forest areas at an early date.Firstly,this study collates and analyzes the relevant literature at home and abroad,after fully understanding the relevant concepts and theories,describes the development status of ecological,industrial and livelihood systems in key state-owned forest areas in Northeast China and Inner Mongolia.Secongly,based on the statistical data of ecology,industry and people’s livelihood in key state-owned forest areas from 2005 to 2020,the evaluation index system of ecology-industry-people’s livelihood complex system is constructed.Using entropy weight method,coupling coordination model,panel Tobit model and grey Markov forecasting model,the development level,coupling coordination level and its influencing factors of key stateowned forest areas during the inspection period are analyzed,and the coupling coordination degree from 2021 to 2023 is predicted.Entropy weight method analysis shows that the development level of ecological subsystem in key state-owned forest areas from 2005 to 2020 has changed from "slightly decreased" to "better developed." The industrial subsystem and the people’s livelihood subsystem have changed from "general development" to "good development." The changes of the comprehensive development index and the industrial subsystem development index are similar,showing the trend of fluctuation first and then rising year by year.The results of the coupling coordination model show that the coupling coordination degree of eco-industry-people’s livelihood in the whole study area has changed from "reluctant coordination" in the transitional stage in 2005 to "intermediate coordination" in the coordinated stage in 2020,which is two grades short of "high quality coordination level." The analysis of influencing factors shows that economic benefits,scientific research innovation,forest management and protection and government support have significant promoting effects on the coupling coordinated development of forest areas,among which government support has the strongest promoting effect,while energy consumption has no significant effect on the coupling coordinated development.From the results of different regions,the main factors affecting the coordinated development of eco-industry-livelihood coupling in Inner Mongolia are economic benefits.The main factors affecting the coordinated development of ecoindustry-livelihood in Jilin area are economic benefits,scientific research innovation and government support.The main factors affecting the coordinated development of Heilongjiang are economic benefits and government support.Grey Markov predicts that the coupling coordination degree of key state-owned forest areas will break through the bottleneck period of "intermediate coordination" development by 2023.Combined with the empirical analysis results of the coupling coordination degree of ecoindustry-livelihood composite system and its influencing factors in key state-owned forest areas,This paper puts forward some suggestions from five aspects: ecological scale,industrial transformation,safeguard mechanism,regional exchange and scientific research innovation,in order to realize the sustainable development of key state-owned forest areas as soon as possible.