| The farmers are the main implementation body of the Cropland to Forest Program(CFP),and the farmers’ willingness to resume farming after the expiration of the subsidies is one of the key elements affecting the consolidation of the program achievements.Due to the long time span of the CFP,it is divided into the former round of CFP and the new round of CFP.Based on the experience of former work,the policies of new round of CFP has changed a lot compared with the polices of former round of CFP,and the implementation period of the two rounds of CFP is different,the former round of CFP started in 1999 and it has been implemented for 22 years until2021,while the new round of Cropland to Forest Program started in 2014 and it has been implemented for 7 years until 2021,so the forest growth quality and income of the two rounds of returned forest land are different.Is the farmers’ willingness to resume farming the same under different policies and growth conditions of returned forests? Are there any differences in terms of factors affecting the farmers’ willingness to resume farming in the two rounds of CFP? What are the differences? In addition,among the factors affecting the farmers’ willingness to resume farming in the two rounds of CFP,which factors are deep-rooted influencing factors? Where is the risk to resume farming highest? Studying these questions will provide important practical guidance for consolidating the achievements of CFP and improving the CFP policies.Given that,the study based on the farmers’ questionnaire survey data in 19 provinces in 2019,guided by the theories of sustainable development,limited rational economic man assumption and planned behavior,to discuss the research basis of farmers’ willingness to resume farming.Then based on the current situation of the two rounds of CFP in China,the farmers’ willingness to resume farming was deeply analyzed from the perspective of farmers by means of the combination of qualitative description and quantitative analysis.Firstly,the binary logistics model was used to compare and analyze the factors affecting farmers’ willingness to resume farming in the two rounds of CFP;then ISM model was used to further analyze the deeper influencing factors affecting farmers’ willingness to resume farming in the two rounds of CFP;at the same time,the risks to resume farming in different provinces of CFP were analyze using the factor analysis.The following results were concluded:(1)The factors influencing farmers’ willingness to return to farming varied in the two rounds of CFP.The results of regression analysis showed that farmers in the former round were more concerned about the situation of returned forest land such as forest types,preservation rate of returned forest land and related incomes,while farmers in the new round were more concerned about fallowing subsidies.The farmers’ willingness to resume farming in the former round was influenced mainly by the per capital area of cultivated land,while the farmers’ willingness to resume farming in the new round was influenced more by the personal characteristics of the household head such as age and ethnicity;the group characteristics of farmers in the two rounds of CFP,such as low-income households and poor households,also had different effects the farmers’ willingness to resume farming;the farmers’ willingness to resume farming in the former round was influenced more by the evaluation on CFP;in addition,the farmers’ willingness to resume farming in both rounds was affected by geographical characteristics.(2)It was found that the correlations and hierarchical structures between the significant influencing factors of farmers’ willingness to resume farming in the two rounds of CFP were different.Among the significant influencing factors of farmers’ willingness to resume farming in the former round,poor households,project evaluation and subsidies were surface influencing factors,incomes from returned forest land was superficial influencing factor,while the area of arable land per capital and preservation rate of returned forest land were the intermediate influencing factors,and the geographical characteristics of farmer’s residence,forest types and located region were the deep influencing factors.As the deepest factors,the geographical characteristics and region directly affected the area of arable land per capital and the preservation rate of returned woodland,and the area of arable land per capital affected the poverty level,which in turn affected the farmers’ willingness to resume farming;meanwhile,the area of arable land per capital and the preservation rate of returned woodland together with the forest types affected the incomes from returned woodland,and the incomes from returned woodland affected the evaluation on CFP and farmer’s satisfaction of the subsidy standard,which in turn affected the farmers’ willingness to resume farming.Among the factors that significantly affected the farmers’ willingness to resume farming in new round of CFP,age and subsidy standard were the surface influencing factors,while ethnicity,households receiving the minimum living guarantee and the geographical location were the deep influencing factors.As the deepest factors,ethnicity,households receiving the minimum living guarantee and the geographical location directly affected whether the farmers were satisfied with the subsidy standard and then affected their willingness to resume farming,meanwhile age also affected farmers’ willingness to resume farming.(3)The risks of resume farming varied for each province in the two rounds of CFP.The provinces with higher risk in the former round of CFP were Gansu,Hubei,Sichuan,while the provinces or municipalities with higher risk in the new round of CFP were Sichuan,Chongqing,Shaanxi and Yunnan.(4)In response to the results of the empirical analysis,relevant countermeasures were put forward,such as formulating flexible policy support,strengthening the management and protection of returned forest land,and enhancing the publicity of CFP,so as to provide reference for decision making to consolidate the achievements of the two rounds of CFP. |
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