Research On Crayfish Market Price Fluctuation And Its Influential Factors

China’s crayfish farming area and production have grown disorderly,and the imbalance of market supply and demand has led to frequent price fluctuations.According to data released by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs,the total area of crayfish farming in my country exceeded 1.286 million hectares in 2019,an increase of 14.80% compared with 2018.In 2003,the total production of crayfish farming in my country was relatively small,only 51,600 tons,but by 2019,the total production of crayfish farming in my country had reached 2.0896 million tons,and its aquaculture output was 40 times than that of 2003.According to forecasts,China’s crayfish farming area may reach 1.33 million hectares in 2020.Blindly expanding the crayfish farming area has led to a large increase in production;while the consumption has not increased significantly,there has been an imbalance of supply and demand,which has caused frequent price fluctuations of crayfish.The price fluctuations of crayfish are closely related to the interests of farmers and consumers,and drastic price fluctuations often bring huge loss of profits to farmers or consumers.In view of the price fluctuation trend and characteristics of the crayfish market,it is increasingly urgent to find the price fluctuation trend and characteristics of the crayfish market,providing a policy basis for the government,farmers and stakeholders in the crayfish industry.According to relevant literature review,it is found that domestic and foreign scholars’ research mainly focuses on the influencing factors of aquatic product price fluctuations,the price trend and price fluctuation characteristics of aquatic products,and the measures to alleviate the price fluctuation of aquatic products.This research is based on theoretical analysis and empirical analysis,using the aquatic product wholesale issued by the National Aquatic Technology Extension Station,the Chinese Fisheries Society,the crayfish price network,the Haida Agriculture and Animal Husbandry,aquaculture network,scientific fish farming and other aquatic product information release platforms Market transaction price data, systematically analyzed the situation of crayfish farming production in China.Aiming at the price trend and fluctuation characteristics of crayfish,first use the X12 seasonal adjustment method to analyze the price trend,and then use the HP filter analysis method to eliminate the long-term trend and isolate the cycle Finally,we are use the ARCH(autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic model)model to prove whether the monthly wholesale price of crayfish in China is clustered.The study found that the price of crayfish in my country has obvious periodicity,a whole year is a cycle,and the cycle length is 12 months.From January,it began to fluctuate and fell,and lasted until May,when the price reached the lowest point;after May,the price of crayfish continued to rebound,and it was probably December that the price of crayfish reached a high point again.The price trend in the cycle shows a "V" shape as a whole.The price fluctuation cycle of my country’s crayfish throughout the year is roughly like this,with highs-lows-highs cyclically.Through factor analysis,it is also found that the impact of price factors on crayfish price changes is weakening.The supply and demand factors composed of crayfish farming output,consumption level,agricultural disaster area,and gross national income have gradually become the most important factors affecting crayfish price changes.In response to the above problems,this article puts forward the following countermeasures: speed up the construction of the crayfish industry risk prevention system,reduce the impact of natural and market risks;strengthen the supervision of the crayfish market price by the supervisory authority,establish a crayfish price fluctuation warning system;establish the whole crayfish industry Chain integrated information release platform to collect and release industry information in a timely manner;vigorously support the development of deep processing of crayfish food.