Research On The Construction And Verification Of Identification Indicator System For Disruptive Technology

Disruptive technology is seen as a core driver of the fourth industrial revolution.Many countries have made it a strategic priority to support the development of disruptive technologies,among which the identification and prediction of disruptive technologies is one of the core contents.The construction of identification index system has always been the focus of the research on disruptive technology.However,due to the complexity of its development process,there are limitations such as weak pertinence of core characteristics and high dependence of subjective opinions.Therefore,it is an important research problem to build a more targeted and objective identification index system of disruptive technology,which has important theoretical and practical significance.Based on the theoretical research,this study makes an in-depth analysis of the concept and connotation of disruptive technology,and establishes a full path model for the generation and development progress.And analyze the existing index system from the technical characteristics and market analysis,puts forward the improvement direction of this research:Use of objective data and the machine learning method,to comparison and analysis of disruptive technology and the corresponding traditional technology,digging the characteristics of disruptive technology,to build a more targeted and objectivity of the identification index system.Based on this,construct the patent data set of synthetic biology and gene targeting technology,and use the decision tree model and correlation analysis for data mining.Then the analytic hierarchy process was used for index weighting,so as to complete the construction of the index system of technical characteristics and conduct verification.Using a variety of market data,put forward market characteristics indicators,build a comprehensive identification index system.Through the above research,the paper draws the following main conclusions :(1)the research on the concept and connotation of disruptive technology has shifted from the focus on after-effect to the focus on mechanism analysis,which means from the initial focus on the impact of technology on existing products and markets,to the focus on the mechanism of technology generation,change and development.(2)the development of disruptive technology is a complex process,has not yet formed a unified concept,but it have reached a consensus on some characteristics,such as technology development,including technical intrusion and replace the mainstream market,the technology discontinuity development,and the technical implementation of diversity,etc.(3)the number of patent applications can reveal the development and evolution of disruptive technologies;The number of patent countries/regions of the same family,the time of patent examination,the number of non-patents cited,the number of claims,the number of patents cited and the number of IPC are the six core indicators to identify the disruptive potential of technology.Among them,the number of patent countries/regions of the same family and the time of patent examination are the key core indicators.(4)on the basis of the above indicators,the patent text difference index can improve the identification effect of technological potential.(5)at present,the identification indicators of market disruption potential are mainly qualitative indicators.By analyzing a variety of market data,this study proposes three indicators: the change rate of industrial investment,the change rate of industrial financing and the growth rate of the number of start-up companies.The innovation points of this research are mainly reflected in: the establishment of a full path model for the generation,development and impact of disruptive technology,to clarify of the essential characteristics and core characteristic;By comparing disruptive technology and its corresponding traditional technology,a more targeted identification index system is constructed based on the laws and characteristics reflected by the data.When weight the index,use the importance score obtained by the decision tree model to replace the expert judgment,which eliminates the influence brought by the subjective evaluation.