Construction Of Disruptive Technology Diffusion Model And Analysis Of Influencing Trend

Introducing disruptive technology into a new competitive platform has the ability to open up new markets and has changed the important role of enterprises in technological competitiveness.However,disruptive technology has the characteristics of unpredictability,breakthrough and relativity,so enterprises may face higher risks when choosing disruptive technology.Disruptive technology brings enterprises a dilemma.Technology diffusion plays a vital role in the process of technological progress.A technological innovation will not affect the economy in any material form unless it is widely applied and promoted.Without diffusion,innovation cannot have an economic impact.Therefore,it is very important for the development,upgrading and transformation of enterprises to study the disruptive technology diffusion and analyze the impact trend of disruptive technology.Based on this,firstly,this paper analyses the status quo of patents of radio frequency identification technology.Then,the SIRS epidemic model is introduced,and the disruptive technology diffusion model based on patent data is established.The influence trend of disruptive technology is analyzed by using the model.Finally,the paper chooses radio frequency identification technology as a case study,and uses MATLAB to simulate and analyze the influence trend chart of radio frequency identification technology in other fields,and calculates the main outbreak probability of radio frequency identification technology in three different application areas.The results of the study can provide reference for enterprises and other stakeholders when they are faced with subversive technology to formulate strategies.Compared with previous studies,this paper mainly deepens in the following aspects:(1)Based on the patent retrieval and analysis database,collect the patents of radio frequency identification technology,analyze the status quo of application of radio frequency identification technology in China from the perspectives of total number of patent applications,regional distribution,attributes of patent applicants,distribution and trend of technology field,and analyze the successful cases of application of existing radio frequency identification technology.(2)Introducing SIRS epidemic model,by comparing the similarity between disruptive technological innovation process and SIRS epidemic model,the differential equation of disruptive technological diffusion model is established,the overall diffusion rate of disruptive technology is calculated by deterministic analysis method,and the probability of industrial and technological disruption is calculated respectively.Combining stochastic model with branching process,the probability of "major explosion" of disruptive technology in candidate applications is calculated.(3)Empirical research was carried out on four patent datasets in the related technical fields of RFID technology,supply chain and inventory technology,telemedicine technology and wearable technology.Based on the data of interdisciplinary patent coexistence,interdisciplinary patent citation and annual patentee coexistence.The probability of "big explosion" of RFID technology in other application fields is calculated.