| The city's comprehensive carrying capacity refers to the city's capacity,capacity and flexibility,which are determined by the three subsystems of ecology,production,and living space,and reflects the overall situation of the city.In the process of rapid development,Shandong Province is facing challenges brought by population congestion,traffic congestion,and environmental pollution.Therefore,this article responds to the requirements of the 19 th National Congress of the CPC,and promotes intensive and efficient production space,suitable living space,and ecological space.The goals of the mountains and rivers are from the three aspects of ecological space carrying capacity,production space carrying capacity,and living space carrying capacity.In-depth study of the changes in the overall carrying capacity of Shandong Province on the time and space scales is helpful to understand the current status of the city.On the basis of this,we put forward specific suggestions for improvement and realize the modern pattern of harmonious coexistence between man and nature.This article refers to relevant literature at home and abroad.Under the guidance of sustainable development theory,urban economic theory,short board theory,etc.,taking Shandong Province as the research area,29 indexes are selected to construct an evaluation index system for the Production-Living-Ecological Space carrying capacity.Use the entropy method to obtain the index weight and calculate the comprehensive evaluation value,and then perform spatial autocorrelation analysis on this basis,and study the coupling and coordination of the spatial bearing capacity of Production-Living-Ecological Space.The obstacle degree model is selected to analyze the obstacle factors affecting the comprehensive carrying capacity of the city.Finally,the grey GM(1,1)model is used to predict the carrying capacity level for the five years from 2019 to 2023.(1)According to the analysis of the development level of the city's comprehensive carrying capacity,it can be seen that the development level of the city's comprehensive carrying capacity in Shandong Province is in good momentum,rising from a low carrying capacity level to a high carrying capacity level.Production-Living-Ecological Space bearing capacity showed an upward trend from 2005 to 2018.The ecological space bearing capacity rose from 0.051867 to 0.240343,the production space bearing capacity rose from 0.01 to 0.247034,and the living space bearing capacity rose from 0.147316 to 0.360462.The carrying capacity of living space has been in the first place for 14 years.Before 2013,the carrying capacity of ecological space was above the carrying capacity of production space.After 2013,the carrying capacity of production space was surpassed.From the perspective of subsystems,ecological space carrying capacity is most affected by water resources carrying capacity;for production space carrying capacity,the efficiency index has increased the most;living space carrying capacity has always been ranked last.From the perspective of spatial distribution,between 2005 and 2018,cities with a medium carrying capacity gradually increased,developing from the coast to the inland,and radiating from Jinan and Qingdao to the surroundings,and basically achieved full coverage in 2018.(2)From the analysis of spatial autocorrelation analysis: From the perspective of global spatial autocorrelation analysis,the Moran's I of the comprehensive carrying capacity of the city from 2005 to 2018 is greater than zero,and there is a positive spatial agglomeration characteristic between the comprehensive carrying capacity of each city;It is far away from 1,and the city's comprehensive carrying capacity is not concentrated.From the perspective of local spatial autocorrelation analysis,hot spots were distributed in Jining and Zaozhuang in 2005,Dongying and Qingdao in 2010,Binzhou and Yantai in 2015,and only in Yantai in 2018.The cold spot areas were distributed in Jining and Linyi in 2015,but only in Jining in 2018,indicating that the comprehensive carrying capacity of the city is not high and there is much room for improvement.(3)Through the analysis of the degree of coupling coordination of Production-LivingEcological Space carrying capacity,we can see that the coupling degree between ProductionLiving-Ecological Space carrying capacity is an upward trend,increasing from 0.128 to 0.922 in 2005-2018.From the time series perspective,the coupling degree was in the nascent stage from 2005 to 2007,the initial stage from 2008 to 2012,the stable stage from 2013 to 2016,and the mature stage from 2017 to 2018.The degree of coupling and coordination has risen steadily,and across the five levels in 14 years,it has reached the stage of barely coordination.From 2005 to 2013,Shandong Province was in a state of lagging development of production space carrying capacity,and from 2014 to 2018,it was a state of lagging development of ecological space carrying capacity.(4)From the analysis of the obstacle degree of the city's comprehensive carrying capacity,it can be seen that from the perspective of the indicator layer,the obstacle factors with higher frequency are mainly water consumption per unit of GDP,the proportion of public facilities land,energy consumption of 100 million yuan output value,industrial smoke and dust emission density,Land for unit output value,per capita arable land area,per capita living area.From the perspective of the criterion layer,the obstacle degree of carrying capacity of living space has always been in the first place from 2005 to 2018,the obstacle degree of bearing capacity of production space has ranked second in 2005-2011,and the obstacle degree of bearing capacity of ecological space has surpassed the second place during 2011-2018.(5)Through the analysis and forecast of the city's comprehensive carrying capacity,it can be known that from 2019 to 2023,the city's comprehensive carrying capacity level in Shandong Province continues to rise and is always at a high carrying capacity level,from 0.98542 to 1.42250,and the growth rate increases year by year.Shandong Province should repair urban shortcomings,strengthen urban planning,and achieve organic integration of production,living,and ecological space. |
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