Study On The Seletion Adn Dynamic Adjustment Of Multi-Phase Emergency Response Plan For Nuclear Accideng

As of February 2018,there are 38 units and 20 units under construction for nuclear power units under construction in China and nuclear power units under construction.Such a large quantity determines the importance of nuclear emergency,both now and in the future.Seven years have passed since the Fukushima nuclear accident,but its enormous impact on the world has not yet dissipated.The uncertainty,multi-stage and dynamic nature of the nuclear accident left a deep impression on the world and made people wake up Is a repeated mistake plan adopted by the decision-makers at Fukushima nuclear accident.It can be seen that the nuclear accident decision-making process requires full-time planning of the expected contingency plan and the psychological factors of decisionmakers need to be taken into consideration.These factors are just the future nuclear Emergency decision-making direction to be developed.This paper summarized the latest emergency decision-making methods at home and abroad as well as the premise of research status quo,the multi-phase emergency plan for nuclear accident selection and dynamic adjustment methods to conduct a more in-depth study,the purpose and significance of the study is: at the method level Proposed a multi-stage contingency plan for nuclear accident considering the conversion rate of sub-programs in adjacent emergency stages,a method to enrich and improve the multi-stage emergency decision-making scheme for nuclear accidents,and then considered the highly unpredictable development of nuclear accidents Gender and information asymmetry,and adding the psychological factors of decision-makers,giving a dynamic adjustment method of emergency decision-making plan based on the prospect theory and enriching the dynamic adjustment of nuclear accident emergency plan.At the application level,using the multi-phase emergency plan of nuclear accident The method of selection is used to find out the multi-stage emergency plan of nuclear accident in N nuclear power plant and verify the scientificity and practicability of the method.The main work of this paper is as follows:(1)Aiming at the selection of multi-phase contingency plans for nuclear accidents,a multi-stage emergency decision-making scheme selection method for nuclear accidents is given from the viewpoint of considering the conversion rates of sub-plans in adjacent decision-making stages.In this method,the concept of emergency scheme conversion rate in adjacent emergency phase is given first,and the emergency problem of multi-stage nuclear accident is described.Then,the comprehensive emergency of each phase of sub-scheme is calculated by improved AHP Effect and evaluate the emergency effect of each emergency sub-program through fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method.Finally,aiming at the maximum multi-stage emergency effect of nuclear accident,an optimization model considering the conversion rate between sub-programs in adjacent emergency phases is established.And solve the model by converting to the longest path of dynamic programming.Finally,the optimal multi-stage emergency plan is obtained.(2)In view of the dynamic of nuclear accident and the uncertainty of information,it is difficult to accurately predict the future consequences and so on.The dynamic adjustment of nuclear accident emergency plan based on the prospect theory is proposed.First of all,this paper describes the problem of dynamic adjustment in the emergency of nuclear accident and proposes the problems to be solved in the paper.Then,based on the value function and weighting function in the prospect theory,the method and process of the dynamic adjustment of the contingency plan in nuclear accident Explain.(3)Through the case analysis of the selection of contingency plans for nuclear accidents in N nuclear power plants,the selection method of multistage contingency plans for nuclear accidents proposed in this paper is applied.The selection process of multi-stage optimal nuclear emergency plans for N nuclear power plants is calculated and analyzed in detail.Finally,result.The feasibility and effectiveness of the method are verified and illustrated through examples.At the end of the dissertation,the paper summarizes the main research results and conclusions and points out the work that needs to be further carried out.In this paper,the research work on the selection and dynamic adjustment of multi-stage contingency plans for nuclear accidents not only enriches the research results of the multi-stage emergency decision-making options of nuclear accidents,but also provides some references for the actual nuclear emergency work.