Research On The Water Resources Carrying Capacity Of Yinma River Basin

Yinma River is the second larger tributaries of the Songhua Rive,located in the core area of black soil in northeastern,it's the northeast old industrial base and the country's major grain food bases.In order to realize the harmonious development of society,economy,population and environment,on the basis of reading a large number of documents,this paper summarizes the domestic and international current research situation of water resources carrying capacity,select the pressure-state response(PSR)model to study the water resources carrying capacity of Yinma River Basin.Firstly,the investigations and evaluations of water resources,then according to the social economic situation of the county towns in 2014,forecast of water demand in 2020 and 2030 by using trend rating method;Finally,set up the establishment of evaluation index system of water resources carrying capacity of Yinma River basin.The model was built on the Visual Basic6.0 platform to solve the water resources carrying capacity.Based on the principle of coordinated development of social economy,ecological environment and water environment,results of calculation of water resources carrying capacity,combined with the quota trend method for water demand,to determine the Yinma River Basin water resources carrying capacity in 2020 and 2030.The main results of the study:1.Yinma River Basin water resources situation is more adequate.In 2014,the total water consumption is 5.98×108m3,the total water supply is 9.73×108m3,the total amount of water resources is 13.43×108m3,the development and utilization of water resources is 72.49%.After calculation,water resources Yinma River basin can use a total of 6.89×108m3.2.By using the method of norm trend drink landmark to predict the water requirement of river basin in 2020 and 2030,total available water requirement is still present the trend of increasing year by year.Predicted the total water requirement of 6.52 ×108m3 in 2020,the total water requirement of 7.18 ×108m3 in 2030.3.Combined with the PSR model calculation results.Analysis of carrying capacity of water resources based on water supply capacity of water resources.The total water supply of Yinma River Basin is 7.53×108m3 in 2020,total water demand is 6.57×108m3,the residual water content is 0.96×108m3,it's concluded that Yinma River Basin water resources is relatively abundant in 2020.Can carry the 2020 socio-economic development of water demand.Can carry people is about 1.86 billion,Water consumption per capital will reach 353m3,can carry GDP is about 125.33 billion yuan,can carry the ecological environment area of 2123km2.The total water supply of Yinma River Basin is 7.65×108m3 in 2030,total water demand is 7.7×108m3,water shortage is 0.053×108m3,compared with the PSR model predicted results overload population of 12970,overload GDP for 1.297 billion yuan,overloading ecological area of 18.9 hectares.According to the imbalance of water supply and demand in 2030,should adjust the industrial structure,give priority to the development of low water consumption,high output value of enterprises,strict control of high water consumption,low output value of enterprises launched,properly reducing the amount of industrial added value of ten thousand yuan,vigorously promote water-saving technology,enhancing the carrying capacity of water resources.