Study On Regional Water Resources Carrying Capacity Calculation Model

Water, as a kind of indispensable valuable resources for human survival, and an important component of the natural environment, is the basic condition of sustainable development. Research on Water resources carrying capacity in study area, measuring the socio-economical development scale that the water resources can bear assuring good ecosystem and safe water environment, accessing the water resources bearing condition, and making a good relationship among water resources, eco-environment, population and sustainable development are important problems in water resources study field. As the lack of water resources increases, water resource has become the key actor restricting the socio-economical sustainable development in Tangshan prefecture which shows the necessity and urgency of the research on water resources carrying capacity.Firstly, based on the overview of the theory method and development trend of the water resources carrying capacity, this paper has investigated the concept, the types, the nature and the characteristics, analyzed the basic theory, classified study methods as easy analysis-estimation way, index comprehensive assessment way and complicated system analysis way, and then compared their relative merits.Secondly, the train of thought of modeling depends on the reasonable allocation of the water resources and the interactive calculation model of the water resources carrying capacity. Based on the prediction of the eco-water demand, the national economy water demand and the water supply, by distributing the water resources reasonably, this paper has determined the water quantity distributed to the life, productivity and ecology, and calculated the agriculture product output and GDP in terms of the relation between input and output and the GDP checking way; according to the per capita demand standard, the water resources carrying capacity-carrying population in study area can be acquired; and the calculation result and information can be feed backed for another round of the reasonable allocation of the water resources and the interactive calculation the water resources carrying capacity.Thirdly, the method of estimation of the water resources carrying condition has been researched, and the classification system of water resources carrying condition by relative carrying index and by absolute carrying index has been created. According to water resources carrying capacity and actual (or forecasting) population at different carrying levels, relativecarrying index and absolute carrying index have been calculated to determinate water resources carrying condition.Lastly, this paper has calculated the water resources carrying capacity in Tangshan city through calculation model and estimated the carrying condition. The result shows that the water resources carrying capacity in general moderate prosperity planning year and in total moderate prosperity planning year is respectively 8.54 million as slightly adequate and 5.85 million people as severe overloaded. The carrying population in total moderate prosperity and basically modernization in Tangshan in 2010 is respectively 7.74 million as slightly adequate and 4.08 million as severe overloaded. And that in 2020 is respectively 15.82 million as heavy adequate and 8.45 million as slightly adequate. According to the assessment result and classified standard in different development phases, we can draw a conclusion that Tangshan city is in phase of initial stage of moderate prosperity in planning year and total moderate prosperity in 2010 and basically modernization in 2020. This paper also proposes measures to increase the water resources carrying capacity taking the practical situation into consideration.