Urban Water Resources Carrying Capacity Calculation Model And Its Application

Water is the most precious natural resources for human survival and development. The scarcity of water resources has been already becoming one of the most prominent society problems in the world since the beginning of 21 century, companied with the increasing of population and the rapid development of economy. Many big cities will be threatened heavily by the scarcity of water resources that may even affect the existence of cities in some countries.The problems on water resources hi China are very serious compared with many other countries because of the special condition of our country. The increasing demand to water resources has made the contradiction more obvious, especially, the rapid development on society and economy since the reformation and opening. Now the problems of water resources have already become a bottleneck that restricts the yielding of industry and agriculture and the development of city in our country.It is of positive and important reality significance for the future of our country to recognize correctly the present situation and forecast the carrying capacity of water resources of the cities in China, and then to adopt corresponding development mode of society and economy.At present, the study on carrying capacity of water resources is in the groping phase, and there has not come into being unitive and generally-accepted definition, theoretical basis and research methods, hi this paper, the models of the carrying capacity calculation and its application are researched. The main content includes three parts as follows:In the first part, starting from the problem and characteristics of water resources of the cities in our country at present, the study background of the carrying of water resources is summarized and analyzed, and its conception, meaning and the affected factors are mainly discussed. A new definition on the carrying capacity is described as: for given area, in the given period, the maximal scale of society and economy which water resources can sustain at the condition of ecosystem circling well. The study progress of the water resources carrying capacity at home and abroad is also deeply analyzed, and the achievements and its problem are pointed out in the research about water resources carrying capacity.hi the second part, the conception and its research content system of the carrying capacity of urban water resources are analyzed at first, and then the carrying degree index of water resources is put forward. Starting from sustainable development and quantitative point of view, a multi-objective optimization model system the carrying capacity of water resources and water environment is established based on the integration of society-economy-environment system, hi the system, the following factors are considered: the quantitative economy, environment and society index, the relation of the transformation among water resources, the restrictive relation among water resources and population-industry-agriculture, the restriction between water environment and economy harmony and the restriction of environment capacity. The counter-deduce calculating method is adopted to obtain the water resources carrying capacity according to the control indexes which include water environment and the transforming relations among water resources, the population, industry output and agriculture output indexes, and so on, other than the method usually used which is to only take thebalance of supply and demand of water resources into account, and calculate satisfactory degree of supply to demand.). It is an improvement on usual method, which makes the calculating result more practical.In the third part, the model and method presented in the second part are applied to determine the water resources carrying capacity of Zhengzhou city. At first, the basic situation of Zhengzhou is analyzed, which include the natural geography, the society and economy condition, the water resources characteristics and its condition exploited and utilized, and then the problems consisting in the water resource...