Projection And Analysis The HIV/AIDS Epidemic In Jilin Province

Objective:This study aimed to estimate current HIV/AIDS number in 2010, project the HIV epidemic trend in next five years, evaluate the effect of the work of HIV control and prevention in the past five years and discuss the impact of different interventions on the HIV epidemic trend in the next five years in Jilin province using the methods of HIV/AIDS estimates and projections which were recommended by WHO/UNAIDS.Methods:Based on the HIV comprehensive data, combined with epidemiology survey data, public security department data and literature information, the methods of Workbook, EPP and AEM were used to estimate and project the HIV epidemic in Jilin province in order to provide some useful information for HIV control and prevention in the future.Results:About 5248 people were estimated to be living with HIV in Jilin province in 2010 and the HIV infection rate of the whole people in Jilin province was 0.02% based on the 2009 total population number of 2739.55 million according to the result of three methods. Most of the whole 5248 people were young with the average age of 27.8 (median of 27), who were mainly aged between 15 and 49 accounting for 97.9%. The major mode of HIV transmission was sexual transmission especially homosexual transmission accounted for a large proportion. The number of people who were living with HIV and HIV new infections will increase in the next five years, especially the new HIV infection number in MSM and clients of FSW will increase obviously. Measurements for HIV control and prevention reduced the increase rate of HIV new infection number to a certain extent in the past five years and at the same time,658 people were prevented from infecting HIV. If the rate of using condom every time among FSW in commercial sexual behavior will increase to 87.7%, the rate of using condom every time among MSM in anal sexual behavior will increase to 73.2% and the infection rate of syphilis among FSW and MSM will be decreased by 20% in the next five years, the HIV new infection number will decrease from 2014. Conclusions:Current HIV epidemic was still on a low level, but the HIV epidemic trend will increase in the next five years in Jilin province. The major mode of HIV transmission was sexual transmission especially homosexual transmission accounted for a large proportion. HIV new infections will be mainly concentrated in the MSM and clients of FSW, so these two populations will be the most important groups for HIV control and prevention in the future. Measurements for HIV control and prevention reduced the increase rate of HIV new infection number to a certain extent in the past five years, but comprehensive interventions should be strengthened in the next five years in order to reduce the HIV new infection number.