HIV Epidemic Model And Projection With Behavior Change Scenarios

There is still no specific medicine for curing AIDS and vaccine for preventing HIV in the medical field at present. In this situation, formulating scientific & effective HIV prevention and control strategies has become the most urgent task. The method of building the HIV/AIDS epidemic projection model which can help us know the HIV/AIDS epidemic process, explore its epidemiological characteristics, analyze the reasons and key factors of its prevalence and search optimal strategy of prevention and control. So the study on HIV/AIDS epidemic projection model is of great practical significance for policy decision.The method of building mathematical model is used to explore and study the characteristics and process of HIV/AIDS epidemic in this paper. The model is built originally from the basic idea of AEM (Asian Epidemic Model). The study improves and simplifies the relationship of key variables and algorithms of realization. A projection software tool was developed by VB. The model has three major functions, which are simulating the epidemic process of HIV/AIDS, predicting the trends of HIV/AIDS epidemic and analyzing the characteristics of HIV prevalence under different behavior change scenarios. On base of reviewing the HIV/AIDS projection models, the paper describes and analyzes the basic principles of model improved. Then taking Region A where HIV epidemic was originated by sharing needles in IDUs for example, the paper validates the model by using the past HIV epidemic data of Region A, predicts the HIV/AIDS trends, analyzes the characteristics of HIV prevalence under different behavior change scenarios.The sexual transmission will become a major mode of HIV transmission through the simulation of the HIV epidemic in Region A. However, it doesn't mean that the HIV spreading would be prevented if the sexual behavior strategy were adopted without prevention sharing needles in drug users. Because prevention and control the HIV spreading is a whole system, it is an effective way to prevent the HIV epidemic by adopting the sexual behavior strategy and the prevention sharing needles in drug users at the same time.