Reseach On Evaluation Of Agricultural Sustainable Development Ability And Countermeasure In Shaanxi Province

As a new kind of strategy, agricultural sustainable development arouses extensively attentions of different levels of governments and various academic fields.In the past 20 years, domestic and international scholars have done a lot of work to study sustainable development, and have formed a series of systematic theory and method. But the study about this field was started late in China, and the achievements made so far has been very limited compared to that in developed countries. This thesis, bases on the research results achieved by frontiers, taking Shaanxi Province as an example, founds the evaluation model of agricultural sustainable development, evalutes the agricultural sustainable development ability in Shaanxi, analyses the mian factors which limits agricultural sustainable development ability in Shaanxi, and discusses some suggestions which could improve agricultural sustainable development ability in Shaanxi. The research results may be of important theoritic significance not only to the appraisal method of regional agricultural sustainable development, but also to the making and implementation of realistic agricultural sustainable development strategies. The result as follow:1. The evaluation of agricultural sustainable development ability during different time in Shaanxi province.(1) The agricultural sustainable development ability is rising year by year in Shaanxi province.but has hidden danger. The score of agricultural sustainable development ability is increasing in Shaanxi province, it states that it is sustainable in the past 10 years. The result of the principal components analysis indicates that each principal components score has frequent change in F1, F2 and F3, It indicates that agricultural sustainable development has many hidden dangers in Shaanxi.(2) Agricultural system and each subsystem development condition exists difference. The population system, the economical system and the social system and agricultural sustainable development are the same, are growing continually. But the resources system and the environment system is dropping. It states that Shanxi Province's resources consumption and the ecological environment destroy quite seriously in 20 century's end.(3) The agriculture system has the closely correlated with various subsystems. The agricultural system and the population system, the economical system and the social system achieve extremely remarkable level, and the correlation coefficient respectively is 0.9609, 0.9603, 0.9866. This indicated that the agriculture system, the population system, the economical system and the social system development are closely link. The agriculture system and the resources system, the environment system had also achieved the extremely remarkable level, but they present inverse correlation, the correlation coefficient respectively is -0.882,-0.898,-0.919. It state that the pattern of agriculturae system which are consumeing the natural resource and sacrificing ecological environment unceasingly.(4) Agricultural system and various subsystems are at uncoordinated condition in Shaanxi. The coordination change process of agriculture system is: The harmony coefficient is rising from 1995 to 2001, The harmony coefficient is dropping from 2001 to 2004. The harmony coefficient continuously is lower than 0.6. It state that Agricultural system is at uncoordinated condition. The harmony coefficient change of various subsystems is very.2. The evaluation of agricultural sustainable development ability in various areas in Shaanxi province.(1) The comparition of agricultural sustainable development ability of various areas in Shaanxi. The area whose agricultural sustainable development ability is higher than the average including Xi'an, Baoji, Xianyang and Weinan.Xi'an>Xianyang>Weinan>Baoji.The area whose agricultural sustainable development ability is higher than the average including Tongchuan,Yenan, Hanzhong, Yulin, Ankang and Shangluo.Hanzhong >Yenan >Tongchuan>Ankang >Shangluo>Yulin>Yenan.(2) The comparition of agricultural sustainable development ability of various areas agricultural subsystem. The population system: Weinan > Xianyang > Shangluor > Ankang > Yulin > Hanzhong > Baoji > Yenan > Tongchuan > Xi'an,The economical system: Yenan > Hanzhong > Ankang > Shangluo> Baoji > Xi'an > Weinan > Yulin > Tongchuan > Xianyang,The social system: Tongchuan > Xi'an > Xianyang > Weinan > Ankang > Baoji > Shangluo > Hanzhong > Yenan > Yulin,The resources system: Hanzhong > Xi'an > Shangluo > Ankang > Xianyang > Weinan > Baoji > Tongchuan > Yenan > Yulin,The environment system: Xi'an > Xianyang > Weinan > Tongchuan > Hanzhong > Baoji > Shangluo> Ankang > Yenan > Yulin.(3) Agricultural development region is divided in Shaanxi. When the cluster scale is 4.95, it may divides 3 kinds of region: the first kand of region includes Xi'an, Tongchuan, Xianyang, Weinan;the second of region includes Baoji, Hanzhong, Ankang, Shangluo;the third of region includes Yenan, Yulin.(4) The coordination condition various areas agriculture system exists difference. The harmony coefficient of various areas is lower than 0.5, it Indicates various areas agriculture system all are uncoordinated condition. The harmony coefficient of Baoji and Weinan area is the highest, indicate that the agricultural system interior essential factor development of the two areas are balanced compares to other area.(5) The coordination condition of various areas exist difference in subsystem. the harmony coefficient are bigger than 0.5 in Baoji, Xianyang and Weinan In the population subsystem, the harmony coefficient are bigger than 0.5 in Xi'an, Baoji and Hanzhong In the economical subsystem, the harmony coefficient are bigger than 0.5 in Baoji and Hanzhong In the social subsystem, the harmony coefficient are bigger than 0.5 in Tongchuan, Baoji, Xianyang In the resource subsystem,the harmony coefficient are bigger than 0.5 in the environment subsystem,they state that they are at coordinated condition. 3. The limit factors of agricultural sustainable development ablity and countermeasure in Shaanxi province.(1) Agricultural sustainable development has some limit factors in Shaanxi province. Agriculture sustainable development has many limit factors in Shaanxi, These factors may divide into three kinds of factor according to its intensity and difficulty, including long, medium, short time interval. Long time limit factors include: the soil erosion is serious, the village labor force culture quality is low, the water resources lack. The medium time limit factors include: the effective irrigated area rate is low, the environmental pollution serious. The short time limit factors include: agricultural population proportion oversized, the agricultural science and technology level is low, average per person farming resources reduction scope big.(2) The countermeasure of improving agricultural sustainable development ability in Shaanxi province. In view of the limit factor, Unifies agricultural development comparison superiority,the auther propose countermeasure of promoting agricultural sustainable development ability in Shaanxi.these countermeasures include: Enhancing agriculture ecological environment protection; Enlarging environment government dynamics, controlling environmental pollution, Protecting agriculture ecological security, The developing education, improveing the human quality; Impelling agriculture advance ; Enhancing the saving water benefit, developing saving water agriculture; reasonablely developing land resource; Perfecting social security systems and so on.